Lifetime Likelihood Computations With NIBRS

This article explores the conditions and assumptions under which it is possible to use National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) in lifetime crime computations, particularly for nonfatal violent crimes. We describe methods for using NIBRS to study lifetime risk for a variety of crimes and show how researchers and policy makers can apply these methods using readily available software such as Microsoft Excel. Finally, we demonstrate in two different studies how NIBRS can be used to estimate lifetime risk at the state and national levels. In doing so, we introduce the concept of the “average person” in each age–sex–race grouping to calculate the risk of victimization for this hypothetical person only.