Spatial utilisation of fast-ice by Weddell sealsLeptonychotes weddelliduring winter

This study describes the distribution of Weddell seals Leptonychotes weddelli in winter (May-September 1999) at the Vestfold Hills, in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. Specifically, we describe the spatial extent of haul-out sites in shore-fast sea-ice, commonly referred to as fast-ice. As winter progressed, and the fast-ice grew thick (ca 2 m), most of the inshore holes closed over, and the seals' distribution became restricted to ocean areas beyond land and islands. Using observations from the end of winter only, we fitted Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to generate resource selection functions, which are models that yield values proportional to the probability of use. The models showed that seal distribution was defined mainly by distance to ice-edge and distance to land. Distance to ice-bergs was also selected for models of some regions. We present the results as maps of the fitted probability of seal presence, predicted by the binomial GAM for offshore regions, both with and without autocorrelation terms. The maps illustrate the expected distribution encompassing most of the observed distribution. On this basis, we hypothesise that propensity for the fast-ice to crack is the major determinant of Weddell seal distribution in winter. Proximity to open water and pack-ice habitats could also influence the distribution of haul-out sites in fast-ice areas. This is the first quantitative study of Weddell seal distribution in winter. Potential for regional variation is discussed. Copyright © Ecography 2005.

[1]  S. Wood Thin plate regression splines , 2003 .

[2]  Anne Lohrli Chapman and Hall , 1985 .

[3]  A. Gordon,et al.  Recurring polynyas over the Cosmonaut Sea and the Maud Rise , 1987 .

[4]  Ian Stirling,et al.  The importance of polynyas, ice edges, and leads to marine mammals and birds , 1997 .

[5]  E. Murphy,et al.  Environmental Change and Antarctic Seabird Populations , 2002, Science.

[6]  Martin O. Jeffries,et al.  Antarctic sea ice : physical processes, interactions, and variability , 1998 .

[7]  T. Gelatt,et al.  LINE TRANSECT SURVEY OF CRABEATER SEALS IN THE AMUNDSEN-BELLINGSHAUSEN SEAS, 1994 , 1999 .

[8]  Michael H. Kutner Applied Linear Statistical Models , 1974 .

[9]  I. Stirling,et al.  Polynyas in the Canadian Arctic , 1981 .

[10]  G. Kooyman,et al.  Habitat Use by Weddell Seals and Emperor Penguins Foraging in the Ross Sea, Antarctica1 , 2001 .

[11]  B. Wienecke,et al.  Foraging space of emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri in Antarctic shelf waters in winter , 1997 .

[12]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Generalized additive models for medical research , 1986, Statistical methods in medical research.

[13]  Andrew E. Derocher,et al.  Functional responses in polar bear habitat selection , 2003 .

[14]  J. Simonoff Smoothing Methods in Statistics , 1998 .

[15]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Distance Sampling: Estimating Abundance of Biological Populations , 1995 .

[16]  M. A. Leibold The Niche Concept Revisited: Mechanistic Models and Community Context , 1995 .

[17]  Gerald L. Kooyman,et al.  A Comparison between Day and Night Diving in the Weddell Seal , 1975 .

[18]  D. Vaughan,et al.  Devil in the Detail , 2001, Science.

[19]  Michael L. Morrison,et al.  Wildlife-habitat relationships : concepts and applications , 1993 .

[20]  I. Stirling Tooth Wear as a Mortality Factor in the Weddell Seal, Leptonychotes Weddelli , 1969 .

[21]  Kang-Tsung Chang,et al.  The inherent aggravation of aggregation: An example with elk aerial survey data , 2002 .

[22]  Randall W. Davis,et al.  Under-ice movements and the sensory basis of hole finding by ringed and Weddell seals , 1992 .

[23]  J. Ward Testa,et al.  Over-winter movements and diving behavior of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica , 1994 .

[24]  J. Croxall,et al.  A COMPARISON OF REPRODUCTIVE PARAMETERS AMONG THREE POPULATIONS OF WEDDELL SEALS (LEPTONYCHOTES WEDDELLII) , 1990 .

[25]  P. Heil,et al.  Seasonal and interannual variations of the oceanic heat flux under a landfast Antarctic sea ice cover , 1996 .

[26]  M. Bester,et al.  Seasonal change in the distribution and density of seals in the pack ice off Princess Martha Coast, Antarctica , 1995, Antarctic Science.

[27]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models, 2nd Edn. , 1990 .

[28]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models , 1992 .

[29]  William N. Venables,et al.  Modern Applied Statistics with S-Plus. , 1996 .

[30]  B. Manly,et al.  Resource selection by animals: statistical design and analysis for field studies. , 1994 .

[31]  James K. Lindsey,et al.  Applying Generalized Linear Models , 2000 .

[32]  John Bell,et al.  A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models , 1997, Environmental Conservation.