An integrated monitoring/modeling framework for assessing human-nature interactions in urbanizing watersheds: Wappinger and Onondaga Creek watersheds, New York, USA

In much of the world, rapidly expanding areas of impervious surfaces due to urbanization threaten water resources. Although tools for modeling and projecting land use change and water quantity and quality exist independently, to date it is rare to find an integrated, comprehensive modeling toolkit to readily assess the future course of urban sprawl, and the uncertainties of its impact on watershed ecosystem health. We have developed a combined socio-economic-ecological toolbox, running on the ArcGIS platform, to analyze subsequent impacts on streamflow and nutrient export using the spatial pattern of urbanization in response to anticipated socio-economic conditions and scenarios. We have applied our toolbox to two New York State catchment areas, Onondaga Creek watershed and Wappinger Creek, that have undergone rapid development in the last decades. Uncertainties in temporal trends of new housing permits, spatial distribution of development detection and development potential, and stream conditions were evaluated using three separate toolsets (ArcECON, ArcGEOMOD, and ArcGWLF, respectively). The toolbox capabilities are demonstrated through a year 2020 scenario prediction and analysis, where the aforementioned tools were explicitly linked to determine future housing development, spread of impervious areas, runoff generation, and stream nitrate flux. Higher economic growth was estimated to induce increased new housing permits and spread of impervious surface areas, leading to flashier streamflow as well as worsening stream condition, which was aggravated when only the forest lands were allowed to be developed.

[1]  R. Howarth,et al.  Inputs of Sediment and Carbon to an Estuarine Ecosystem: Influence of Land Use. , 1991, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[2]  Donald C. Pierson,et al.  MODELING THE HYDROCHEMISTRY OF THE CANNONSVILLE WATERSHED WITH GENERALIZED WATERSHED LOADING FUNCTIONS (GWLF) 1 , 2002 .

[3]  Giorgos Mountrakis,et al.  Integrating intermediate inputs from partially classified images within a hybrid classification framework: An impervious surface estimation example , 2010 .

[4]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  An integrated approach to linking economic valuation and catchment modelling , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[5]  R. Howarth,et al.  Modeling water, sediment and organic carbon discharges in the Hudson-Mohawk basin: Coupling to terrestrial sources , 1996 .

[6]  C. Vörösmarty,et al.  Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. , 2000, Science.

[7]  John M. Polimeni,et al.  Simulating Agricultural Conversion to Residential use in the Hudson River Valley: Scenario Analyses and Case Studies , 2005 .

[8]  R. Klein.  URBANIZATION AND STREAM QUALITY IMPAIRMENT , 1979 .

[9]  R. Ewing.  Characteristics, Causes, and Effects of Sprawl: A Literature Review , 2008 .

[10]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management , 2003, Environ. Model. Softw..

[11]  William H. Frey,et al.  Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy , 2004 .

[12]  R. Forman,et al.  ROADS AND THEIR MAJOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS , 1998 .

[13]  Jonathan Logan,et al.  Greening the Rust Belt: A Green Infrastructure Model for Right Sizing America's Shrinking Cities , 2008 .

[14]  B. Berry,et al.  Urban environmental management: planning for pollution control;: An original text with integrated readings , 1974 .

[15]  R. Gil Pontius,et al.  Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA , 2001 .

[16]  J. Erickson,et al.  Regional Economic Modeling and Spatial Key Sector Analysis , 2007 .

[17]  P. Groffman,et al.  The urban stream syndrome: current knowledge and the search for a cure , 2005, Journal of the North American Benthological Society.

[18]  R. Gil Pontius,et al.  Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica , 2001 .

[19]  Donald E. Weller,et al.  Modeling the hydrochemistry of the Choptank River Basin using GWLF and Arc/Info: 1. Model calibration and validation , 2000 .

[20]  R. Schmidt,et al.  Long-term changes in ecosystem health of two Hudson Valley watersheds, New York, USA, 1936–2001 , 2006, Hydrobiologia.

[21]  Tim D Fletcher,et al.  The Influence of Urban Density and Drainage Infrastructure on the Concentrations and Loads of Pollutants in Small Streams , 2004, Environmental management.

[22]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[23]  Christoph Humborg,et al.  Modeling Riverine Nutrient Transport to the Baltic Sea: A Large-scale Approach , 2007, Ambio.

[24]  K. Limburg,et al.  Some historical changes in the patterns of population and land use in the Hudson River watershed , 2004 .

[25]  K. Bevenb,et al.  Use of spatially distributed water table observations to constrain uncertainty in a rainfall – runoff model , 1998 .

[26]  M. Turner,et al.  A FUTURE PERSPECTIVE ON NORTH AMERICA'S FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS , 2000 .

[27]  Hanqin Tian,et al.  Modelling spatial and temporal patterns of tropical land use change , 1995 .

[28]  J. L. Smoot,et al.  Effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems , 2005 .

[29]  J. Erickson,et al.  Residential Location Theory, Modeling, and Scenario Analysis of Urban Growth and Planning , 2007 .

[30]  Mik Wisniewski,et al.  Applied Regression Analysis: A Research Tool , 1990 .

[31]  S. Postel.  Entering an era of water scarcity: the challenges ahead. , 2000 .

[32]  G. Kleppel,et al.  Responses of Emergent Marsh Wetlands in Upstate New York to Variations in Urban Typology , 2004 .

[33]  E. Stanley,et al.  Ecological Forecasting and the Urbanization of Stream Ecosystems: Challenges for Economists, Hydrologists, Geomorphologists, and Ecologists , 2003, Ecosystems.

[34]  Giorgos Mountrakis.  Next Generation Classifiers : Focusing on Integration Frameworks , 2008 .

[35]  Giorgos Mountrakis,et al.  Enhancing and replacing spectral information with intermediate structural inputs: A case study on impervious surface detection , 2011 .

[36]  Ning Sun,et al.  Assessment of the SWMM model uncertainties within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework for a high‐resolution urban sewershed , 2013 .

[37]  Haihong Zhu,et al.  Simulating spatial urban expansion based on a physical process , 2003 .

[38]  Kuang-Yao Lee,et al.  Modeling the hydrochemistry of the Choptank River basin using GWLF and Arc/Info: 2. Model Validation and Application , 2001 .

[39]  Giorgos Mountrakis,et al.  International Journal of Remote Sensing , 2022 .

[40]  K. Limburg,et al.  Connecting the ecological-economic dots in human-dominated watersheds: Models to link socio-economic activities on the landscape to stream ecosystem health , 2009 .

[41]  G. La Loggia,et al.  Daily streamflow prediction with uncertainty in ephemeral catchments using the GLUE methodology , 2009 .

[42]  D. Maidment.  Arc hydro : GIS for water resources , 2002 .

[43]  G. Mountrakis,et al.  Developing collaborative classifiers using an expert-based model. , 2009 .

[44]  Richard A. Smith,et al.  Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model: Theory, Application and User Documentation , 2006 .

[45]  Douglas A. Haith,et al.  GENERALIZED WATERSHED LOADING FUNCTIONS FOR STREAM FLOW NUTRIENTS , 1987 .

[46]  R. Strawderman,et al.  Bayesian estimation of input parameters of a nitrogen cycle model applied to a forested reference watershed, Hubbard Brook Watershed Six , 2005 .

[47]  Erik Smedberg,et al.  Modeling hydrology and silicon‐carbon interactions in taiga and tundra biomes from a landscape perspective: Implications for global warming feedbacks , 2006 .

[48]  A Veldkamp,et al.  Modelling land use change and environmental impact. , 2004, Journal of environmental management.

[49]  Joanne E. Caminiti,et al.  Catchment modelling-a resource manager's perspective , 2004, Environ. Model. Softw..

[50]  Keith Beven,et al.  The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. , 1992 .

[51]  Jay Wright Forrester,et al.  Urban Dynamics , 1969 .

[52]  J. Meyer,et al.  Streams in the Urban Landscape , 2001 .

[53]  R. Pendall.  Sprawl Without Growth: The Upstate Paradox , 2003 .