Quantitative assessment of risk caused by domino accidents

The complexity of domino scenarios represented a considerable obstacle to the quantitative assessment of risk posed by escalation events. In the present chapter, the state of the art concerning quantitative approaches proposed for the assessment of risk caused by domino accidents is summarized. A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents, suitable for the calculation of individual and societal risk indexes, is outlined. Alternative approaches proposed for the quantitative assessment of domino effects, based on Bayesian techniques and Monte Carlo simulations, are also described.

[1]  Robert R. Schumacher,et al.  Evaluating the probability of major hazardous incidents as a result of escalation events , 1993 .

[2]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[3]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Models for domino effect analysis in chemical process industries , 1998 .

[4]  P. Latha,et al.  Strategies for the quantification of thermally initiated cascade effects , 1992 .

[5]  Ccps.  Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis , 1999 .

[6]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis. , 2005, Journal of hazardous materials.

[7]  Guohua Chen,et al.  Modeling and algorithm of domino effect in chemical industrial parks using discrete isolated island method , 2011 .

[8]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[9]  S Contini,et al.  Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities. , 2000, Journal of hazardous materials.

[10]  I L Hirst,et al.  'Worst case' methodology for the initial assessment of societal risk from proposed major accident installations. , 2000, Journal of hazardous materials.

[11]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  The Estimation of Vulnerability in Domino Accidental Events , 2004 .

[12]  Tasneem Abbasi,et al.  A new method for assessing domino effect in chemical process industry. , 2010, Journal of hazardous materials.

[13]  Nicolas Dechy,et al.  Lessons Learned from Toulouse and Buncefield Disasters: From Risk Analysis Failures to the Identification of Atypical Scenarios Through a Better Knowledge Management , 2012, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  Reference criteria for the identification of accident scenarios in the framework of land use planning , 2013 .

[15]  Mark Morris,et al.  Quantification of escalation effects in offshore quantitative risk assessment , 1994 .

[16]  Gigliola Spadoni,et al.  The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area , 1995 .

[17]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of domino accidents. , 2009, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[18]  Christian Delvosalle,et al.  ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries. , 2006, Journal of hazardous materials.

[19]  Faisal Khan,et al.  DOMIFFECT (DOMIno eFFECT): user-friendly software for domino effect analysis , 1998 .

[20]  Finn V. Jensen,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs , 2001, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[21]  Luigi Portinale,et al.  Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks , 2001, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  C.J.H. van den Bosch,et al.  Methods for the calculation of physical effects – ‘Yellow Book,’ CPR 14E , 1997 .

[23]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  Quantitative assessment of domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool , 2006 .

[24]  Valerio Cozzani,et al.  Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area , 2009 .

[25]  C. Nussey.  Risk analysis of six potentially hazardous industrial objects in the Rijnmond area, a pilot study: A report to the Rijnmond public authority , 1983 .

[26]  G. Spadoni,et al.  New detailed numerical procedures for calculating risk measures in hazardous materials transportation , 1999 .