Remaining Useful Life Estimation Using CNN-XGB With Extended Time Window

The remaining useful life estimation has been widely studied for engineering systems. A system commonly works under varying operating conditions, which may affect the system degradation trajectory differently and consequently reduce the accuracy of remaining useful life estimation. In this paper, we propose CNN-XGB with extended time window to tackle this issue. Firstly, the extended time window is created by feature extension and time window processing in data preprocessing. In feature extension, multiple degradation features are extracted by an improved differential method, and these features are appended to the raw data as additional features. To make the time window cover more information for better prognostic accuracy, a time window padding method is used considering the problem of missing data in some samples. Secondly, a convolutional neural network architecture with multichannel 1 * 1 filter kernel is proposed considering the effect of varying operating conditions. Furthermore, to improve the prognostic robustness and avoid the sensitivity to the abnormal data, convolutional neural network and extreme gradient boosting are fused by model averaging (CNN-XGB). The validity of the proposed method is verified using aero-engine datasets from NASA.

[1]  Li Lin,et al.  Remaining useful life estimation of engineered systems using vanilla LSTM neural networks , 2018, Neurocomputing.

[2]  F.O. Heimes,et al.  Recurrent neural networks for remaining useful life estimation , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management.

[3]  Xi Zhang,et al.  Multiple Sensor Data Fusion for Degradation Modeling and Prognostics Under Multiple Operational Conditions , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[4]  Kay Chen Tan,et al.  Multiobjective Deep Belief Networks Ensemble for Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Prognostics , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems.

[5]  Xiaoli Li,et al.  Deep Convolutional Neural Network Based Regression Approach for Estimation of Remaining Useful Life , 2016, DASFAA.

[6]  Runxia Guo,et al.  Prognostics for a Leaking Hydraulic Actuator Based on the F-Distribution Particle Filter , 2017, IEEE Access.

[7]  Kobi Cohen,et al.  Active Anomaly Detection in Heterogeneous Processes , 2018, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP).

[8]  Matthew J. Daigle,et al.  Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[9]  J. Friedman Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. , 2001 .

[10]  Tianqi Chen,et al.  XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System , 2016, KDD.

[11]  Hongwen He,et al.  Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Life Prediction With Box–Cox Transformation and Monte Carlo Simulation , 2019, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[12]  Chao Hu,et al.  Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life , 2011, 2011 IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management.

[13]  Tapan Kumar Saha,et al.  On Particle Filtering for Power Transformer Remaining Useful Life Estimation , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery.

[14]  Zhiwu Huang,et al.  RLCP: A Reinforcement Learning Method for Health Stage Division Using Change Points , 2018, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management (ICPHM).

[15]  Shanlin Yang,et al.  Heterogeneous Ensemble for Default Prediction of Peer-to-Peer Lending in China , 2018, IEEE Access.

[16]  Guanghua Xu,et al.  A mixture Weibull proportional hazard model for mechanical system failure prediction utilising lifetime and monitoring data , 2014 .

[17]  Chetan Gupta,et al.  Long Short-Term Memory Network for Remaining Useful Life estimation , 2017, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management (ICPHM).

[18]  Abhinav Saxena,et al.  Damage propagation modeling for aircraft engine run-to-failure simulation , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management.

[19]  Zhiwu Huang,et al.  Ensemble Strategy for Hard Classifying Samples in Class-Imbalanced Data Set , 2018, 2018 IEEE International Conference on Big Data and Smart Computing (BigComp).

[20]  Gary B. Wills,et al.  Application of Bagging, Boosting and Stacking to Intrusion Detection , 2012, MLDM.

[21]  Enrico Zio,et al.  A novel support vector regression method for online reliability prediction under multi-state varying operating conditions , 2018, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  Xiang Li,et al.  Remaining useful life estimation in prognostics using deep convolution neural networks , 2018, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[23]  Lovekesh Vig,et al.  Predicting Remaining Useful Life using Time Series Embeddings based on Recurrent Neural Networks , 2017, International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.

[24]  Zhiyong Gao,et al.  A similarity-based method for remaining useful life prediction based on operational reliability , 2018, Applied Intelligence.

[25]  Emmanuel Ramasso,et al.  Investigating computational geometry for failure prognostics , 2014, International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.

[26]  Enrico Zio,et al.  A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications , 2017 .

[27]  Jianbo Yu,et al.  A similarity-based prognostics approach for Remaining Useful Life estimation of engineered systems , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management.

[28]  Brigitte Chebel-Morello,et al.  Direct Remaining Useful Life Estimation Based on Support Vector Regression , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[29]  Xiaoli Li,et al.  Deep Convolutional Neural Networks on Multichannel Time Series for Human Activity Recognition , 2015, IJCAI.

[30]  L. Peel,et al.  Data driven prognostics using a Kalman filter ensemble of neural network models , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management.

[31]  Tianyou Zhang,et al.  Health Index-Based Prognostics for Remaining Useful Life Predictions in Electrical Machines , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics.

[32]  Linxia Liao,et al.  Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Engineered Systems, and an Application to Battery Life Prediction , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[33]  Bin Liang,et al.  Remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engine based on degradation pattern learning , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[34]  Kay Chen Tan,et al.  A time window neural network based framework for Remaining Useful Life estimation , 2016, 2016 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN).

[35]  Carl Ott,et al.  Prognostic Health-Management System Development for Electromechanical Actuators , 2015, J. Aerosp. Inf. Syst..