Methods for Comprehensive Analysis of Heat Supply Reliability

The paper deals with the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability for consumers. It implies a quantitative assessment of the impact of all stages of heat energy production and distribution on heat supply reliability for each consumer of the heat supply system. A short review of existing methods for the analysis of fuel and heat supply reliability is presented that substantiates the key approaches to solving the problem of comprehensive analysis of heat supply reliability. A methodological approach is suggested, in which mathematical models and methods for nodal evaluation of heat supply reliability for consumers are developed and the studies on the impact of different elements of fuel and heat supply systems on its level are described. Mathematical modeling is based on the Markov random processes, models of flow distribution in a heat network, deterministic dependences of thermal processes of heat energy consumption and some other models.