Analysis of risk factors for progression in patients with pathologically confined prostate cancers after radical retropubic prostatectomy.

PURPOSE Up to 26% of patients with pathologically organ confined prostate cancer will experience clinical progression after radical prostatectomy. We attempted to identify patients at greatest risk for future clinical failure despite a favorable pathological outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study group included 904 patients treated with bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical retropubic prostatectomy for disease confined to the prostate gland. Preoperative serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), clinical stage, pathological grade and stage, and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) ploidy were evaluated by multivariate analysis to determine relative value in predicting treatment failure. A prognostic scoring system was created using the regression coefficients from the Cox multivariate model to classify patients further according to risk of progression. RESULTS Preoperative PSA concentration, clinical stage, grade and DNA ploidy were significant univariate predictors of progression (p < 0.0001), whereas pathological stage was not (p = 0.2). Multivariate analysis identified pathological grade (p < 0.0001), preoperative serum PSA concentration (p = 0.0006) and DNA ploidy (p = 0.0089) as independent predictors of progression. The prognostic scoring system separated the patients into 5 distinct groups. Patients with the lowest score had a 92% progression-free survival rate at 5 years, compared to only 39% of those with the highest scores. CONCLUSIONS Patients believed to be at higher risk for cancer progression despite having organ confined disease might be targeted for adjuvant therapy and closer surveillance, while those at low risk may be followed less often.