Two-stage workforce planning under demand fluctuations and uncertainty

We address a multi-category workforce planning problem for functional areas located at different service centres, each having office-space and recruitment capacity constraints, and facing fluctuating and uncertain workforce demand. A deterministic model is initially developed to deal with workforce fluctuations based on an expected demand profile over the horizon. To hedge against the demand uncertainty, we also propose a two-stage stochastic program, in which the first stage makes personnel recruiting and allocation decisions, while the second stage reassigns workforce demand among all units. A Benders’ decomposition-based algorithm is designed to solve this two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program. Computational results based on some practical numerical experiments are presented to provide insights on applying the deterministic versus the stochastic programming approach, and to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm as compared with directly solving the model using its deterministic equivalent.

[1]  Leon S. Lasdon,et al.  Optimization Theory of Large Systems , 1970 .

[2]  R. W. Morgan,et al.  Some Models for a Hierarchical Manpower System , 1979 .

[3]  Antony R. Unwin,et al.  Stochastic Models for Social Processes (3rd Edition) , 1982 .

[4]  Sally McClean,et al.  Manpower planning models and their estimation , 1991 .

[5]  Abraham Charnes,et al.  Multi-Level Models for Career Management and Resource Planning. , 1971 .

[6]  V. S. S. Yadavalli,et al.  A semi-Markov model of a manpower system , 2001 .

[7]  Clive Purkiss,et al.  Corporate manpower planning: a review of models , 1981 .

[8]  Sally McClean,et al.  Modelling heterogeneity in a manpower system: a review , 2000 .

[9]  W. D. Ray.  Optimisation and Control of Dynamic Operational Research Models , 1983 .

[10]  Hanif D. Sherali,et al.  Decomposition with branch-and-cut approaches for two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming , 2006, Math. Program..

[11]  Hanif D. Sherali,et al.  A modification of Benders' decomposition algorithm for discrete subproblems: An approach for stochastic programs with integer recourse , 2002, J. Glob. Optim..

[12]  G. J. Evans.  Manpower Planning Models. , 1975 .

[13]  S. Craig Moore,et al.  Manpower planning models , 1977 .

[14]  Hanif D. Sherali,et al.  On solving discrete two-stage stochastic programs having mixed-integer first- and second-stage variables , 2006, Math. Program..

[15]  Jacques F. Benders,et al.  Partitioning procedures for solving mixed-variables programming problems , 2005, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[16]  Albert Corominas,et al.  Multi-objective allocation of multi-function workers with lower bounded capacity , 2005, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[17]  R. Hopes,et al.  Manpower Planning Models , 1975 .

[18]  Antonio Alonso Ayuso,et al.  Introduction to Stochastic Programming , 2009 .

[19]  Abraham Charnes,et al.  A Multi-Objective Model for Planning Equal Employment Opportunities. , 1976 .

[20]  Alexander Mehlmann,et al.  An Approach to Optimal Recruitment and Transition Strategies for Manpower Systems using Dynamic Programming , 1980 .

[21]  Milan Zeleny,et al.  Multiple criteria decision making, Kyoto, 1975 , 1976 .

[22]  R. Wets,et al.  Stochastic programming , 1989 .

[23]  Xiaomei Zhu,et al.  Two-Stage Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programs: Algorithms and Insights , 2009 .

[24]  G. J. Evans,et al.  Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning , 1979 .

[25]  A. R. Smith,et al.  Manpower and Management Science , 1972 .

[26]  David Yang Gao,et al.  Advances in mechanics and mathematics , 2002 .

[27]  A. R. Smith,et al.  Stochastic Models for Social Processes. , 1968 .

[28]  Wilson L. Price,et al.  A Normative Model for Manpower Planning Under Risk , 1978 .

[29]  William J. Abernathy,et al.  A Three-Stage Manpower Planning and Scheduling Model - A Service-Sector Example , 1973, Oper. Res..

[30]  Wilson L. Price,et al.  A review of mathematical models in human resource planning , 1980 .

[31]  Daniel Sipper,et al.  Production: Planning, Control and Integration , 1997 .

[32]  David J. Bartholomew,et al.  Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning. , 1979 .

[33]  W. L. Price,et al.  The Application Of Goal Programming To Manpower Planning , 1972 .

[34]  Julia L. Higle,et al.  The C3 Theorem and a D2 Algorithm for Large Scale Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming: Set Convexification , 2005, Math. Program..

[35]  Rüdiger Schultz,et al.  Dual decomposition in stochastic integer programming , 1999, Oper. Res. Lett..

[36]  N. Tsantas,et al.  Modelling recruitment training in mathematical human resource planning , 2002 .