Performance comparisons of intelligent load forecasting structures and its application to energy-saving load regulation

This study mainly focuses on the development of intelligent forecasting structures via a similar time method with historical load change rates for the hourly, daily and monthly load forecasting simultaneously based on the basic frameworks of fuzzy neural network (FNN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). In the regulative aspect of network parameters, conventional back-propagation (BP) and PSO tuning algorithms are used, and varied learning rates are designed in the sense of discrete-time Lyapunov stability theory. The performance comparisons of different intelligent forecasting structures including neural network (NN) structure with BP tuning algorithm (NN-BP), FNN structure with BP tuning algorithm (FNN-BP), FNN structure with BP tuning algorithm and varied learning rates (FNN-BP-V), FNN structure with PSO tuning algorithm (FNN-PSO) and newly-designed adaptive PSO (APSO) structure are verified by numerical simulations. In order to verify the effectiveness of the superior APSO forecasting structure in practical energy-saving load regulation, the load forecasting during every 15 min is also given, and its result is used to manipulate the scheduled unloading control of a real case in Taiwan campus.

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