The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence‐based policy context

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐based policy research and horizon (environmental) scanning.Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins with a brief history of foresight in UK government, then describes the current government context for horizon scanning. Next, it defines horizon scanning as a method; highlights the contradictions between horizon scanning and more traditional empirical research; and offers suggestions to improve the rigor of horizon scanning.Findings – Increased focus on defining the rules for source identification and scan data validation can enhance credibility.Research limitations/implications – Current horizon scanning work in the UK government suggests these methodological improvements, but proof will wait upon completion and deployment of several ongoing horizon scans.Practical implications – Provides improved acceptability and dissemination of horizon scanning as a tool, as well as heightened engagement of policy...