Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning

Risk assessments are performed to support decision-making, which could have a long-term impact, for example decisions related to the use of different techniques to plug and abandon an old oil well. The uncertainties related to potential future events and their consequences are in this case often large, which may lead to the introduction of uncertain assumptions and thus make it difficult to ensure that the decision made also provides an acceptable risk level for the future. Recently, a scheme for the systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions in (semi-)quantitative risk assessments was proposed. The suggested scheme focused on how a risk analyst can treat and reflect uncertainties related to the assumptions underlying such a risk assessment. In the present paper, we extend this scheme to provide guidance also to risk managers on how to follow up assumptions after the risk assessment has been performed and the decision made. The aim is to provide a systematic scheme for the development of strategies, motivated by so-called assumption-based planning, that risk managers can use to ensure an acceptable long-term risk level. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme.

[1]  B.J.M Ale,et al.  Risk assessment practices in The Netherlands , 2002 .

[2]  Marc Aerts,et al.  NUSAP: a method to evaluate the quality of assumptions in quantitative microbial risk assessment , 2010 .

[3]  Stephen E. Chick,et al.  Microbial Risk Assessment for Drinking Water , 2005 .

[4]  Didier Dubois,et al.  Formal Representations of Uncertainty , 2010, Decision-making Process.

[5]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Approaches to acceptable risk: a critical guide , 1980 .

[6]  Jerome R. Ravetz,et al.  Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy , 1990 .

[7]  Jon Espen Skogdalen,et al.  Developing safety indicators for preventing offshore oil and gas deepwater drilling blowouts , 2011 .

[8]  Steven Pender,et al.  Managing incomplete knowledge: Why risk management is not sufficient , 2001 .

[9]  Terje Aven,et al.  A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[10]  Ingrid Bouwer Utne,et al.  Building Safety indicators: Part 2 - Application, practices and results , 2011 .

[11]  Arthur C. Petersen,et al.  A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[12]  P. Chapman,et al.  A critical evaluation of safety (uncertainty) factors for ecological risk assessment , 1998 .

[13]  Frank B. Walton,et al.  Geological storage of CO2: A statistical approach to assessing performance and risk , 2005 .

[14]  Stan Kaplan,et al.  The Words of Risk Analysis , 1997 .

[15]  Roger Flage,et al.  Comparing and integrating the NUSAP notational scheme with an uncertainty based risk perspective , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[16]  T. Schneider,et al.  Evaluation of the Impact and Inter-Generation Risk Transfers Related to the Release and Disposal of Radioactive Waste from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle : A Methodological Exercise , 2000 .

[17]  J van der Sluijs,et al.  Experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment. , 2005, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[18]  Nancy G. Leveson,et al.  A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[19]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Uncertainty in Risk Assessment , 2014 .

[20]  P. Kloprogge,et al.  A method for the analysis of assumptions in assessments , 2005 .

[21]  Alan N. Beard.  Risk assessment assumptions , 2004 .

[22]  Jeroen P. van der Sluijs,et al.  On the contribution of external cost calculations to energy system governance: the case of a potential large-scale nuclear accident , 2011 .

[23]  Clayton M. Christensen,et al.  Making strategy: learning by doing. , 1997, Harvard business review.

[24]  Terje Aven,et al.  Risk, Surprises and Black Swans: Fundamental Ideas and Concepts in Risk Assessment and Risk Management , 2014 .

[25]  P. Schutjens,et al.  Plugging and Abandonment of Oil and Gas Wells: A Geomechanics Perspective , 2017 .

[26]  Enrico Zio,et al.  Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods , 2013 .

[27]  T. Bedford,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods , 2001 .

[28]  Adedokun Adenipekun,et al.  Riserless Light Well Intervention Restores Production on Oyo - 8 Subsea Well , 2017 .

[29]  Terje Aven,et al.  On the Ethical Justification for the Use of Risk Acceptance Criteria , 2007, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[30]  Ingrid Bouwer Utne,et al.  Building Safety indicators: Part 1 – Theoretical foundation , 2011 .

[31]  S. Funtowicz,et al.  Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model‐Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[32]  Jakub Montewka,et al.  Expressing and communicating uncertainty and bias in relation to Quantitative Risk Analysis , 2015 .

[33]  Kristin Shrader-Frechette,et al.  Burying Uncertainty: Risk and the Case Against Geological Disposal of Nuclear Waste , 1993 .

[34]  Dominiek Maes,et al.  NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[35]  S. Ferson,et al.  Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability , 1996 .

[36]  R. Grosberg,et al.  Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs , 2003, Science.

[37]  J. P. van der Sluijs,et al.  Uncertainty, assumptions, and value commitments in the knowledge base of complex environmental problems , 2006 .

[38]  Mary O'Brien,et al.  Making Better Environmental Decisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment , 2000 .

[39]  Terje Aven,et al.  On the use of conservatism in risk assessments , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[40]  A. Faaij,et al.  Health, Safety and Environmental Risks of Underground Co2 Storage – Overview of Mechanisms and Current Knowledge , 2006 .

[41]  Terje Aven,et al.  Practical implications of the new risk perspectives , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[42]  Ian I. Mitroff,et al.  The Metaphysics of Policy and Planning: A Reply to Cosier , 1981 .

[43]  T. Aven,et al.  EXPRESSING AND COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS , 2009 .

[44]  Richard Wilson.  Risk analysis , 1986, Nature.

[45]  Liam G. Herringshaw,et al.  Oil and gas wells and their integrity : implications for shale and unconventional resource exploitation , 2014 .

[46]  Stan Schofield,et al.  Offshore QRA and the ALARP principle , 1998 .

[47]  Robert Friedberg,et al.  SS: Subsea Well Intervention: Experiences From Operating New Generation Riserlesss Light Well Intervention Units in the North Sea: Challenges and Future Opportunities , 2010 .

[48]  J. Dewar.  Assumption-Based Planning: The essence of Assumption-Based Planning , 2002 .

[49]  T. Aven,et al.  On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain , 2009 .

[50]  Roger Flage,et al.  Strengthening quantitative risk assessments by systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions , 2016, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..