System Dynamics Modeling of Gartner's Hype Cycle

Gartner's hype cycle, introduced in 1995, characterizes the typical progression of an emerging technology from overenthusiasm through a period of disillusionment to an eventual understanding of the technology's relevance and role in a market or domain. In this paper, we present the dynamic mechanism underlying the related behaviors of the Gartner's hype cycle by introducing the simulation technique for system dynamics, an approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time. Constructed by component-wise method, minimal model of hype cycle provides us with understanding crucial behaviors in terms of the expectation and the development of an emerging technology with parameter variation. The analysis derived from this paper allows both technology planners and enterprises to use it as a touchstone for business strategic decision-makings. Moreover, this model can be applicable to gain insight into other systems showing similar behaviors.