Utilizing probabilities as decision weights in closed and open information boards: a comparison of children and adults.

Decisions in preschoolers (6 years), elementary schoolers (9.7 years), and adults (21 years) were studied with an information board crossing three probabilistic cues (validities: .83, .67, .50) with two options. Experiment 1 (n=215) applied a standard version of the information board (closed presentation format), in which information must be searched sequentially and kept in mind for the decision. Experiment 2 (n=217) applied an open format (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008), in which all information was visible during decision making. Elementary schoolers but not preschoolers benefited from an open format—indicated by an increase in using probabilities as decision weights. In the open but not closed format, choices were biased by normatively irrelevant information (the lure). Variations in the prediction patterns of the cues influenced decisions in all age groups. Effects for presentation format, pattern, and lure jointly indicate that even children are capable of considering multiple information in their decisions.

[1]  T. Betsch,et al.  Utilization of probabilistic cues in the presence of irrelevant information: a comparison of risky choice in children and adults. , 2013, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[2]  J. Rieser,et al.  Bayesian integration of spatial information. , 2007, Psychological bulletin.

[3]  J. Neumann,et al.  Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. , 1945 .

[4]  R. Kail,et al.  Processing time decreases globally at an exponential rate during childhood and adolescence. , 1993, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[5]  P. H. Miller,et al.  A developmental perspective on executive function. , 2010, Child development.

[6]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[7]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Heuristic decision making. , 2011, Annual review of psychology.

[8]  P. Harris,et al.  Preschoolers monitor the relative accuracy of informants. , 2007, Developmental psychology.

[9]  R. Kliegl,et al.  Working memory in children: tracing age differences and special educational needs to parameters of a formal model. , 2012, Developmental psychology.

[10]  J. Piaget,et al.  The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children , 1975 .

[11]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making: Extensive Thinking Without Effort , 2010 .

[12]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[13]  Deborah Roedder John,et al.  The Emergence of Adaptive Decision Making in Children , 1997 .

[14]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[15]  Irwin P. Levin,et al.  Risk preferences in young children: early evidence of individual differences in reaction to potential gains and losses , 2003 .

[16]  Deborah Roedder John,et al.  Are Young Children Adaptive Decision Makers? A Study of Age Differences in Information Search Behavior , 1995 .

[17]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Attitudes toward objects as predictors of sin-gle and multiple behavioral criteria , 1974 .

[18]  Emma A. Climie,et al.  Eye Gaze Provides a Window on Children's Understanding of Verbal Irony , 2008 .

[19]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[20]  A. Bröder,et al.  Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm. , 2014, Acta psychologica.

[21]  D. Sobel.  Running head: CHILDREN’S CAUSAL INFERENCES Children’s causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers , 2003 .

[22]  N. Anderson,et al.  Children's judgments of expected value. , 1994 .

[23]  Peter C. Fishburn,et al.  LEXICOGRAPHIC ORDERS, UTILITIES AND DECISION RULES: A SURVEY , 1974 .

[24]  Brenda R. J. Jansen,et al.  Development of decision making: sequential versus integrative rules. , 2012, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[25]  Jerome S. Bruner,et al.  Going Beyond the Information Given , 2006 .

[26]  D. Best,et al.  Children¿s decision making: the effects of training, reinforcement, and memory aids , 2003 .

[27]  A. Glöckner.  Investigating intuitive and deliberate processes statistically: The multiple-measure maximum likelihood strategy classification method , 2009, Judgment and Decision Making.

[28]  Jörg Rieskamp,et al.  When easy comes hard: the development of adaptive strategy selection. , 2011, Child development.

[29]  M. Dapretto,et al.  Neural basis of irony comprehension in children with autism: the role of prosody and context. , 2006, Brain : a journal of neurology.

[30]  S. Kreitler,et al.  Development of Probability Thinking in Children 5 to 12 Years Old , 1986 .

[31]  Irwin P. Levin,et al.  Age-related differences in adaptive decision making: Sensitivity to expected value in risky choice , 2007, Judgment and Decision Making.

[32]  B. Newell,et al.  Take the best or look at the rest? Factors influencing "one-reason" decision making. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[33]  A Schlottmann,et al.  Children's probability intuitions: understanding the expected value of complex gambles. , 2001, Child development.

[34]  L. Siegel.  Working Memory and Reading: A Life-span Perspective , 1994 .

[35]  D. Davidson,et al.  The effects of decision characteristics on children's selective search of predecisional information. , 1996, Acta psychologica.

[36]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Outcome-based strategy classification , 2010 .

[37]  Daniel M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Heuristics made easy: an effort-reduction framework. , 2008, Psychological bulletin.

[38]  B. Ambridge,et al.  The structure of working memory from 4 to 15 years of age. , 2004, Developmental psychology.

[39]  M. Balconi,et al.  Understanding irony: an ERP analysis on the elaboration of acoustic ironic statement , 2008 .

[40]  R. Case,et al.  Operational efficiency and the growth of short-term memory span , 1982 .

[41]  Yoella Bereby-Meyer,et al.  Children's Choice Strategies: The Effects of Age and Task Demands. , 2004 .

[42]  Tilmann Betsch,et al.  A Sampling Approach to Biases in Conditional Probability Judgments: Beyond Baserate-Neglect and Statistical Format , 2000 .

[43]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making. , 1988 .

[44]  Bruce M. Ross,et al.  Children's Understanding of Probability Concepts. , 1971 .

[45]  J. Stroop.  Studies of interference in serial verbal reactions. , 1992 .

[46]  Marc Jekel,et al.  The rationality of different kinds of intuitive decision processes , 2012, Synthese.

[47]  D. Davidson,et al.  Children's decision-making examined with an information-board procedure☆ , 1991 .

[48]  A. Schlottmann,et al.  Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill: Judgment and decision making in young children , 2011 .

[49]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats , 1995 .

[50]  A. Bröder.  Decision making with the "adaptive toolbox": influence of environmental structure, intelligence, and working memory load. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[51]  A. Glöckner,et al.  Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing. , 2008, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[52]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .

[53]  Andreas Glöckner,et al.  Decisions beyond boundaries: when more information is processed faster than less. , 2012, Acta psychologica.