The Promise and the Peril of Biofuels: Trends in Reducing CO2 in the Transport Sector

Biofuels and dirty fuels, such as oil shale, liquid coal and tar sands, may replace oil eventually. This article describes the benefits and drawbacks of using these fuels, and provides insight into what the future may hold in terms of fuel consumption. To prevent catastrophic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 2050 to 50 - 60 % of 1990 levels. Transportation is responsible for roughly a quarter of these emissions. Expert opinion, once optimistic that biofuels might reduce carbon dioxide emissions, are now saying that emissions from the full fuel production cycle of biofuels may be higher than normal petroleum-based fuels. The production of biofuels also may lead to deforestation and higher food prices. Although more fuel efficient vehicles will need to be part of any carbon dioxide solution, the economic viability of fuel efficient vehicles depends in part on future oil prices. From an environmental and equity perspective, the best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is by reducing private car and motorcycle use. Although leaders of the environmental movement believed that technological solutions were the best hope for reducing transport sector greenhouse gas emissions, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by encouraging people to switch modes looks more politically viable and would minimize the risks associated with the almost certain transition to biofuels and dirty fuels.