Predictability and Error Growth Dynamics in Cloud-Resolving Models

Abstract While the benefits of ensemble techniques over deterministic numerical weather predictions (NWP) are now widely recognized, the prospects of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) at high computational resolution are still largely unclear. Difficulties arise due to the poor knowledge of the mechanisms promoting rapid perturbation growth and propagation, as well as the role of nonlinearities. In this study, the dynamics associated with the growth and propagation of initial uncertainties is investigated by means of real-case high-resolution (cloud resolving) NWP integrations. The considered case is taken from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme intensive observing period 3 (MAP IOP3) and involves convection of intermediate intensity. To assess the underlying mechanisms and the degree of linearity upon the predictability of the flow, vastly different initial perturbation methodologies are compared, while all simulations use identical lateral boundary conditions to mimic a perfectly predictable synoptic-scale ...

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