Cost reduction in PV manufacturing impact on grid-connected and building-integrated markets

Abstract In the past three years there have been several key events or changes that can lead to fully economic, massive deployment to the grid-connected and central PV markets. The factors discussed in this report include: (1) Significant cost reduction in single crystal and polycrystal silicon so that modules profitably priced at $3.10–$3.30 per peak watt and installed grid-connected systems with installed cost of $5.50 per watt are being offered. (2) Several new thin film plants - amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium diselenide are being built for 1996, 1997 production with greatly reduced costs. (3) Government subsidized volume orders for PV in grid-connected houses (Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, and the United States) provide volume (2000 + units per year) that lead to reduced costs. (4) Environmental benefits for PV are being applied in Europe and Japan permitting “early adopters” to enter the market. (5) Government and commercial acceptance of PV building integrated products, especially in Europe, are expanding PV markets. The combination of these forces lead to the prediction that an “accelerated” market mode could start in the year 2000.