Information Domination: Dynamically Coupling METOC and INTEL for Improved Guidance for Piracy Interdiction

Abstract : Global piracy activity is on the rise. The region around the Horn of Africa (HOA) experienced a tenfold increase in piracy in 2009 and 2010 relative to 2008. The U.S. Department of Transportation outlines several economic impacts associated with enhanced piracy activity. These include the fuel and personnel costs associated with rerouting ships via the Cape of Good Hope, as well as the opportunity costs associated with increased transit times. For ships that choose to transit through high-risk areas, there are increased insurance costs, costs of additional security, and costs of nonlethal deterrent equipment. In addition, there are national costs associated with increased naval activity to protect shipping in high-risk areas. It is estimated that piracy costs the U.S. maritime industry between $1 billion and $16 billion per year. In addition to economic impacts, piracy also threatens humanitarian aid efforts around the HOA. There is also concern that the money being paid in ransom for hijacked ships is being used to finance regional conflicts around the HOA and potentially to finance terrorist activities. Because pirates tend to operate in small vessels, they are particularly vulnerable to adverse winds and seas. NRL is helping to operationalize and improve a product created and disseminated through the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) in an effort to communicate the risk of pirate attack to commercial shipping taking into account environmental, intelligence, and behavioral information. Before describing the process of dynamically coupling environmental and intelligence information, the impact of the environment on pirate activity is quantified based on analysis of the historical record of pirate attacks. The novel approach of dynamic coupling of environmental and intelligence information is then described. Finally, a description of efforts associated with the use of autonomous intelligent agents for the elucidation of emergent pirate behavior is provided.