Estimating PV power from aggregate power measurements within the distribution grid

The increased integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution grids reduces visibility and situational awareness for utilities because the PV systems' power production is usually not monitored by them. To address this problem, a method called Contextually Supervised Source Separation (CSSS) has been recently adapted for real-time estimation of aggregate PV active power generation from aggregate net active and reactive power measurements at a point in a radially configured distribution grid (e.g., substation). In its original version, PV disaggregation is formulated as an optimization problem that fits linear regression models for the aggregate PV active power generation and true substation active power load. This paper extends the previous work by adding regularization terms in the objective function to capture additional contextual information such as smoothness, by adding new constraints, by introducing new regressors such as ambient temperature, and by investigating the use of time-varying regressors. Furthermore, we perform extensive parametric analysis to study tuning of the objective function weighting factors in a way that maximizes performance and robustness. The proposed PV disaggregation method can be applied to networks with either a single PV system (e.g., megawatt scale) or many distributed ones (e.g., residential scale) connected downstream of the substation. Simulation studies with real field recorded data show that the enhancements of the proposed method reduce disaggregation error by 58% in winter and 35% in summer compared to previous CSSS-based work. When compared against a commonly used transposition model based approach, the reduction in disaggregation error is more pronounced (78% reduction in winter and 45% in summer). Additional simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm is also applicable for PV systems with time-varying power factors. Overall, our results show that—with appropriate modeling and tuning—it is possible to accurately estimate the aggregated PV active power generation of a distribution feeder with minimal or no additional sensor deployment.