Research on Construction Accident Forecast Based on Gray-Markov Theory

The construction accident forecast statistical data in China have the characteristics of poverty and great fluctuation,and the existing forecast model has a lack of accuracy and operability.For this,Markov and Gray theory was combined by GM(1,1) to build the Grey-Markov forecasting model that adapts to the characteristics of construction statistical data.This model gives full play to the superiority of Grey theory in fitting small samples and the advantages of Markov theory in dealing with fluctuation data.Based on the application of this model in the number analysis of construction accidents from 1994 to 2007,it was further used to forecast the number of construction accidents in 2008 and 2009.The results show that the accuracy of accident forecast method based on Grey-Markov theory is up to 90%.