Experiment design beyond gut feeling: statistical tests and power to detect differential metabolites in mass spectrometry data

Univariate hypotheses tests such as Student’s t test or variance analysis (ANOVA) can help to answer a variety of questions in metabolomics data analysis. The statistical power of these tests depends on the setup of the experiment, the experimental design and the analytical variance of the actual observations. In this paper, we demonstrate how a well-designed pilot study prior to an experiment with the aim to find differences between e.g. several genotypes, can help to determine the variance at multiple levels ranging from biological variance, sample preparation to instrumental variances. Next, we illustrate how these variances can be used to obtain several parameters (e.g. minimum statistically significant effect, number of required replicates and error probabilities) which influence the design of the actual study. In particular, we are going to sketch how technical replicates can improve the performance of a test, when they are correctly used in the statistical analysis, e.g. with a hierarchical model. Finally, we demonstrate the process of evaluating the trade-off between different experimental designs with different replication strategies. The choice of an experimental design beyond the gut feeling can be influenced by factors such as costs, sample availability and the accuracy of of the tests. We use metabolite profiles of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana measured on an UPLC-ESI/QqTOF-MS as real-world dataset, but the approach is equally applicable to other sample types and measurement methods like NMR based metabolomics.