Mediation and Peacekeeping in a Random Walk Model of Civil and Interstate War

The Sinai Peninsula that separates Israel and Egypt covers roughly 24,000 square miles. It is a largely arid desert with much of it presenting conditions favorable for either mechanized infantry transport or, in its barren mountains, providing ideal shelter for guerilla forces. Following the United Nations (UN) partition plan in 1947 that ultimately led to the creation of Israel, the Israelis and Egyptians fought in or over the Sinai Peninsula in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1968-1970, and 1973. In 1977, Egyptian president Anwar Sadat traveled to Jerusalem. There, he accepted an invitation from the newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to begin negotiations that might lead to a normalization of relations between Israel and Egypt, two countries that had maintained active hostilities toward one another since the founding of Israel (Humphreys 1999; Stein 1999). Following the initial meetings in Jerusalem, the US President Jimmy Carter initiated a third-party mediation effort that culminated in the Camp David accords in 1978. These negotiations, in turn, led to the historic 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty. Under the terms of the agreements, the UN was to enforce the initial terms of the settlement as it affected the Sinai. Since the expiration of the UN mandate in 1982, there has been an ongoing multinational, US-led peacekeeping mission deployed to the Sinai to separate Egyptian and Israeli forces. For the past twentyfive years, US-led peacekeepers in the Sinai have helped prevent the renewal of fighting between Egypt and Israel-the longest period of peace Israel has known with any of its neighbors. This case is an example of both successful mediation and peacekeeping. Absent President Carter's mediation efforts, it seems unlikely that the two sides would have reached an agreement (Telhami 1990; Princen 1992). More recently, Israel and Jordan signed a treaty settling many of the issues that had led to frequent uses of force between these two countries. Notably, the two states were able to reach agreement about one of the thorniest issues in the desert: water distribution rights. Again, the United States, this time under President Bill Clinton, played an important role as an interested third party providing mediation and technical assistance during the process (National Research Council 1999).