A China Paradox: Migrant Labor Shortage amidst Rural Labor Supply Abundance

A U.S. geographer and noted authority on China's urbanization seeks to explain the apparent paradox between reported recent shortages of migrant labor in cities in eastern China's export-oriented manufacturing belt and the abundant supply of labor in China's rural areas. He examines important socioeconomic contexts often overlooked in the debate over whether China has reached the Lewis turning point (when dual rural-urban labor markets begin to merge and a labor surplus economy is transformed into a full-employment economy), which make possible the existence of such shortages over the short term and in local areas. These include the special characteristics of China's export industrialization (e.g., preference for workers in the age category 16-30); its immense migrant labor force, constrained under the hukou system; the short-term impacts of China's economic stimulus program launched in early 2009 in the wake of the global economic crisis; and cycles in the global economy that support or impede export production.