Message from 2015 best paper award winners

Liu, Z., Nadim, F., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Mignan, A., Fleming, K., Quan Luna, B. 2015. A three-level framework for multi-risk assessment, Georisk, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 59–74. Many areas of the world are prone to multiple types of natural and man-made threats. Despite growing public awareness of the risks posed by coinciding and interacting hazards, only a limited number of multi-risk studies have been proposed based onmathematically rigorous approaches. Due to the different spatial and temporal characteristics of such threats, and the possible interactions among them, it is a significant challenge to make hazard/risk comparisons across regions that are exposed to several threats without considerable resources and expertise in engineering practice. The assessment and effective reduction of the risk posed by several natural and man-made threats at a given location requires a multi-risk assessment framework that accounts for the possible interactions between the threats, including possible amplifying cascading processes. Neglecting hazard interactions and implicitly assuming the interdependence of the risks posed by each hazard might lead to an underestimation of the actual risk level. This paper provides a three-level framework to allow for the straightforward and flexible implementation of multi-risk assessment based on the available information. The overall multi-risk assessment process proposed in the paper comprises three stages: qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative multi-risk analysis. Whatever level is chosen, it has to be adjusted according to the data availability, to the objectives (e.g., what results are required?) and to the inherent issues (e.g., stakeholder interests). The flexible framework recommended in the paper aims to cope with the challenges in the communication of multi-hazard results, in the assessment of the physical vulnerability of the elements at risk that are exposed to multiple hazards, and in the quantification of multi-risk. The general approach that we describe in our paper is portable to other multi-hazard interaction problems provided that the trigging mechanism among multiple hazards and the evolution of the probable damage to the exposed elements at risk are known. In the paper, we demonstrated how to perform multirisk assessment, step by step, in such a way that the practicing engineer or other specialist could readily use it. We also attempted to assess multi-risk quantitatively while considering both triggering/cascade effects and the time-variant vulnerability of a system exposed to multiple hazards. We expect that our results will encourage decision-makers and/or risk analysts to apply the multirisk approach and multi-risk assessment models to the development of a sustainable environment, land-use planning and identifying appropriate risk mitigation strategies. We would like to thank the editorial team of the journal Georisk for selecting our article for the Best Paper Award for 2015. This recognition gives us confidence that our work is of practical value and provides us with renewed enthusiasm to continue extending the areas of investigation described in the paper. Congratulations to the editorial team and Taylor & Francis for making Georisk the peerreviewed journal of choice for quality papers that aim at more realistic modelling and improved understanding of multi-risk.