The Stockpile Reliability of Propelling Charge for Performance and Storage Safety using Stochastic Process

Abstract Purpose: This paper presents a method to evaluate the stockpile reliab ility of propelling charge for perform-ance and storage safety with storage time.Methods: We consider a performance failure level is the amount of muzzle velocity drop which is the maximum allowed standard deviation multiplied by 6. The lifetime for pe rformance is estimated by non-linear regression analysis. The state failure level is assumed that the content o f stabilizer is below 0.2%. Because the degrada-tion of stabilizer with storage time has both distribution of state and distribution of lifetime, it must be evaluated by stochastic process method such as gamma process.Results: It is estimated that the lifetime for performance is 59 years. The state distribution at each storage time can be shown from probability density function of degradat ion. It is estimated that the average lifetime as   life is 33 years from cumulative failure distribution function curve.Conclusion: The lifetime for storage safety is shorter than for performance and we must consider both the lifetime for storage safety and the lifetime performance becaus e of variation of degradation rate.Key Words：Performance, Storage Safety, Degradation, Gamma Process, Stock pile Reliability