A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE BID DISTRIBUTION IN PUBLIC TENDERS

According to the EU 2004/18/EC concerning the public procurement of goods and services, any Public Administration should accept the bids of all eligible suppliers in order to increase the price competition and avoid collusive actions. Building upon a past contribution to IPPC 2008, the authors have considered several tenders, analysed their bid distribution and developed a model that predicts the trend of the offers before bid opening. By using this model, a firm can determine the probabilistic shape of the bid distribution in the tender and, consequently, maximize his expected profit taking into account supply costs and probability of award.

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