A Practical Method for Rapid Assessment of Reliability in Deep Excavation Projects

Many reliability analysis methods require complicated mathematical process or access to comprehensive datasets. Such shortcomings limit their application to solve the geotechnical problems. It is of advantage to develop simpler reliability analysis methods that can be employed in the design of geotechnical structures. The current study suggests a simple framework for quick reliability analysis of deep excavation projects in urban areas, which is a common geotechnical problem. To investigate the feasibility of the presented method, five case studies were considered. It is worth mentioning that the horizontal displacement at the crest of excavation was set to be the main system response. For verification purposes, the results were compared to the random set, point estimate and Monte Carlo methods results, which are also used for reliability analysis of geotechnical problems. All case studies were recognized as projects of high importance and monitored during the excavation process. The field observations confirmed that the estimated probabilities of excessive deformations were reasonable for all cases. Comparing the modeling results and field measurements suggests the feasibility of the presented method for evaluating the reliability of deep urban excavations and estimating the horizontal displacement at the crest of excavations.

[1]  E. Otte.  A structural design procedure for cement treated layers in pavements , 1978 .

[2]  Peter Lumb,et al.  Application of statistics in soil mechanics , 1974 .

[3]  Mahdi Hasanipanah,et al.  A Monte Carlo technique in safety assessment of slope under seismic condition , 2017, Engineering with Computers.

[4]  Jerzy Bauer,et al.  Application of the response surface method , 2007 .

[5]  Paolo Gardoni,et al.  Reliability assessment of excavation systems considering both stability and serviceability performance , 2007 .

[6]  Jie Zhang,et al.  Bayesian Framework for Characterizing Geotechnical Model Uncertainty , 2009 .

[7]  A G Altschaeffl,et al.  RELIABILITY OF SLOPES: INCORPORATING QUALITATIVE INFORMATION (ABRIDGMENT) , 1992 .

[8]  Kok-Kwang Phoon,et al.  Reliability analysis with scarce information: Comparing alternative approaches in a geotechnical engineering context , 2013 .

[9]  R. Mullen,et al.  Interval Monte Carlo methods for structural reliability , 2010 .

[10]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Influence of spatial variability on slope reliability using 2-D random fields. , 2009 .

[11]  R. Suchomel,et al.  Comparison of different probabilistic methods for predicting stability of a slope in spatially variable c–φ soil , 2010 .

[12]  Niels C. Lind,et al.  Modelling of uncertainty in discrete dynamical systems , 1983 .

[13]  Hao Zhang,et al.  Interval Finite Elements as a Basis for Generalized Models of Uncertainty in Engineering Mechanics , 2007, Reliab. Comput..

[14]  Armando Mammino,et al.  Determination of parameters range in rock engineering by means of Random Set Theory , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  Helmut Schweiger,et al.  Basic Concepts and Applications of Point Estimate Methods in Geotechnical Engineering , 2007 .

[16]  Bak Kong Low,et al.  Reliability-based design applied to retaining walls , 2005 .

[17]  Andrzej S. Nowak,et al.  Integration formulas to evaluate functions of random variables , 1988 .

[18]  M. Harr.  Probabilistic estimates for multivariate analyses , 1989 .

[19]  Farrokh Nadim,et al.  Tools and Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty in Geotechnics , 2007 .

[20]  Gordon A. Fenton,et al.  Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements , 2004 .

[21]  Helmut Schweiger,et al.  Reliability Analysis in Geotechnics with the Random Set Finite Element Method , 2005 .

[22]  J. Christian,et al.  Reliability Applied to Slope Stability Analysis , 1994 .

[23]  G. N. Smith.  A SUGGESTED METHOD OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EARTH RETAINING STRUCTURES , 1986 .

[24]  A. Fakher,et al.  Evaluating random set technique for reliability analysis of deep urban excavation using Monte Carlo simulation , 2018, Computers and Geotechnics.

[25]  Irfan Kaymaz,et al.  Application Of Kriging Method To Structural Reliability Problems , 2005 .

[26]  W. Allen Marr,et al.  Displacement-Based Design for Deep Excavations , 2010 .

[27]  Helmut Schweiger,et al.  Random Set Finite Element Method _ Application to Tunnelling , 2011 .

[28]  S. Chakraborty,et al.  Reliability analysis of structures by iterative improved response surface method , 2016 .

[29]  Peter Lumb,et al.  The Variability of Natural Soils , 1966 .

[30]  F. Pukelsheim.  The Three Sigma Rule , 1994 .

[31]  Dian-Qing Li,et al.  Efficient System Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability in Spatially Variable Soils Using Monte Carlo Simulation , 2015 .

[32]  M. Ahmadabadi,et al.  Assessment of the application of point estimate methods in the probabilistic stability analysis of slopes , 2015 .

[33]  H. Hong.  An efficient point estimate method for probabilistic analysis , 1998 .

[34]  E. Rosenblueth.  Point estimates for probability moments. , 1975, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[35]  Syed Muntazir Abbas,et al.  Rock slope reliability analysis based on distinct element method and random set theory , 2013 .