Global Burden of Tuberculosis: Estimated Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality by Country

THE MOST RECENT PUBLISHED estimates of the global burden of tuberculosis (TB) are based on data available up to 1990 and, with 1 exception, give figures for regions of the world rather than individual countries. The magnitude of the tuberculosis problem has changed since 1990, due to changing control practices, spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and population growth. As an interim measure, the World Health Organization (WHO) published a revised set of estimates for 1996, obtained by scaling earlier World Bank estimates to 1996 population sizes. A more thorough review is needed to take account of nearly a decade of change in TB epidemiology and to accommodate new data. Our main aim was to estimate risk and prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection and TB incidence, prevalence, and mortality for 1997. The results are the fullest and most up-to-date assessment we can currently make of TB burden by country, by region, and globally. They define the magnitude of the global TB control problem for use in assessing present control efforts and provide a baseline from which to forecast and measure impact of control efforts.

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