COBRA 2007-XX 1 Analysis of the Forces in the Exponentialoid Growth in Construction

The construction industry is a major contributor to emissions generation and pollution and is a main world resource consumer (prime matter, energy, labor, capital). Because of this, the industry is formulating short and long-term sustainability targets. Europe has issued long-term objectives that require huge adaptations by the industry. Voluntary incentive programs such as LEED, and all of the presently conceived conservation, green and high-performance sustainable measures including Carbon Trading strategies, even if adopted globally, are vastly insufficient to achieve the ‘necessary targets’ in a timely manner because of the exponentialoid nature of the problem. This paper identifies the multiple and complex forces in the exponentialoid growth of global construction. At the front end are population (driven by need and want) and resource consumption (driven by increased affluence); at the back end is emissions generation. These forces exhibit an exponentialoid growth trend. “Exponentialoid” is a term introduced by García Bacca (1989) to differentiate it from an exponential. An exponential is an algorithm with limited variables, whereas an exponentialoid denotes a condition when multiple complex forces conspire to create growth with logarithmic properties. This paper argues that construction is experiencing logarithmic growth in resource consumption and emissions generation caused by complex forces.