A Model for Investigating the Interaction Between Go-Arounds and Runway Throughput

When an arriving aircraft executes a go-around, runway throughput (as measured in landings per hour) decreases. The objective of this paper is to understand the interaction between go-arounds, reduced separation, and runway throughput. This paper develops a model of the arrival and go-around process using stochastic models of aircraft separation and runway occupancy times. The model is based on a previous model by Jeddi et al. and is extended in several ways in this paper. For example, the model accounts for all categories of go-arounds, not just those related to separation issues. The model is fitted with recent data on observed go-around rates from Sherry et al. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantify trade-offs between different parameters in the model and their impact on throughput, holding go-around rates fixed. One parameter of interest is the variance of inter-arrival separation, which is expected to be reduced under NextGen.