Thermal modeling for energy-efficient smart building with advanced overfitting mitigation technique

Building energy accounts large amount of the total energy consumption, and smart building energy control leads to high energy efficiency and significant energy savings. A compact and accurate building thermal model is important for designing the efficient energy control system. In this paper, we propose an accurate thermal behavior modeling technique for general and complicated buildings. This new modeling technique builds compact thermal model by system identification using temperature and power data obtained from EnergyPlus software, which can provide realistic temperature, weather and power data for buildings. In order to make the best use of data from EnergyPlus and avoid the overfitting problem associated with the system identification method, a cross-validation technique is employed to generate multiple thermal models to find the optimal model order. The final model is then generated by performing a regular system identification using the previously selected order. Experimental results from a case study of a 5-zone building have shown that the proposed method is able to find the optimal model order, and the building models built by the proposed method can achieve 1-3% average errors and less than 10-18% maximum errors for the estimation of zone temperatures for about a one year period.