Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
暂无分享,去创建一个
[1] S. Halstead,et al. Dengue , 1872, The Lancet.
[2] David M. Hartley,et al. A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010 , 2013, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.
[3] Dixon,et al. Episodic fluctuations in larval supply , 1999, Science.
[4] Francesca Dominici,et al. Local and Global Effects of Climate on Dengue Transmission in Puerto Rico , 2009, PLoS neglected tropical diseases.
[5] Eva Harris,et al. Dengue: knowledge gaps, unmet needs, and research priorities. , 2017, The Lancet. Infectious diseases.
[6] Aaron A. King,et al. Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[7] Derek A T Cummings,et al. Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010–2014 , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[8] Bryan T Grenfell,et al. Multiannual forecasting of seasonal influenza dynamics reveals climatic and evolutionary drivers , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[9] Michael A. Johansson,et al. Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Niño Southern Oscillation, Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis , 2009, PLoS medicine.
[10] T. Scott,et al. Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal. , 2014, Epidemics.
[11] Cameron P. Simmons,et al. Current concepts: Dengue , 2012 .
[12] G. Sugihara,et al. Generalized Theorems for Nonlinear State Space Reconstruction , 2011, PloS one.
[13] N. Hens,et al. Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission: A Systematic Review of Structural Approaches , 2012, PloS one.
[14] A. R. Gallant,et al. Noise and Nonlinearity in Measles Epidemics: Combining Mechanistic and Statistical Approaches to Population Modeling , 1998, The American Naturalist.
[15] S. Carpenter,et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions , 2009, Nature.
[16] George Sugihara,et al. Global environmental drivers of influenza , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[17] George Sugihara,et al. Nonlinear forecasting for the classification of natural time series , 1994, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Physical and Engineering Sciences.
[18] Donald Hedeker,et al. Longitudinal Data Analysis , 2006 .
[19] George Sugihara,et al. Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series , 1990, Nature.
[20] P. Fine,et al. Measles in England and Wales--I: An analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns. , 1982, International journal of epidemiology.
[21] John S. Brownstein,et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue , 2013, Nature.
[22] Bärbel Finkenstädt,et al. Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach , 2000 .
[23] G Sugihara,et al. Distinguishing error from chaos in ecological time series. , 1990, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.
[24] George Sugihara,et al. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems , 2012, Science.
[25] 多賀 厳太郎,et al. Dynamical Systems Approach , 2001 .
[26] Judith M. Fonville,et al. Dengue viruses cluster antigenically but not as discrete serotypes , 2015, Science.
[27] Eva Harris,et al. Dengue , 2015, The Lancet.
[28] Kung-Sik Chan,et al. Climate variation drives dengue dynamics , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.