Confidence intervals for the minimum of a function using extreme value statistics

Stochastic search algorithms are becoming an increasingly popular tool in the optimisation community. The random structure of these methods allows us to sample from the range of a function and to obtain estimates of its global minimum. However, a major advantage of stochastic search algorithms over deterministic algorithms, which is frequently unexplored, is that they also allow us to obtain interval estimates. In this paper, we put forward such advantage by providing guidance on how to combine stochastic search and optimisation methods with extreme value theory. To illustrate this approach we use several well-known objective functions. The obtained results are encouraging, suggesting that the interval estimates yield by this approach can be helpful for supplementing point estimates produced by other sophisticated optimisation methods.

[1]  S. Resnick Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling , 2006 .

[2]  A. Pakes,et al.  Stochastic Algorithms, Symmetric Markov Perfect Equilibrium, and the , 2001 .

[3]  M. Carvalho A generalization of the Solis-Wets method , 2012 .

[4]  L. Haan,et al.  Extreme value theory : an introduction , 2006 .

[5]  Kamil Feridun Turkman,et al.  Asymptotic models and inference for extremes of spatio-temporal data , 2010 .

[6]  David H. Wolpert,et al.  No free lunch theorems for optimization , 1997, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[7]  G. Casella,et al.  Clustering using objective functions and stochastic search , 2008 .

[8]  J. Tawn,et al.  Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications , 2004 .

[9]  Robert L. Smith,et al.  Simulated annealing for constrained global optimization , 1994, J. Glob. Optim..

[10]  Jan R. Magnus,et al.  Records in Athletics Through Extreme-Value Theory , 2006 .

[11]  Manuel L. Esquível A Conditional Gaussian Martingale Algorithm for Global Optimization , 2006, ICCSA.

[12]  James C. Spall,et al.  Introduction to stochastic search and optimization - estimation, simulation, and control , 2003, Wiley-Interscience series in discrete mathematics and optimization.

[13]  D K Smith,et al.  Numerical Optimization , 2001, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[14]  C. G. D. Vries The simple economics of bank fragility , 2005 .

[15]  L. Haan Estimation of the Minimum of a Function Using Order Statistics , 1980 .