论文信息 - 7.5.2 Risk Analysis

7.5.2 Risk Analysis

This paper presents a risk analysis example with quantitative data for frequency of occurrence and severity of consequences. It presents an algorithm for deriving severity scores. Then it shows use of a risk management tool that is commonly used in industry. Finally it presents many other factors that affect human perception of risk. Identifying and controlling risk is a characteristic behavior of intelligent enterprises.

A. Terry Bahill | Eric D. Smith

[1] L. Real. UNCERTAINTY AND POLLINATOR-PLANT INTERACTIONS: THE FORAGING BEHAVIOR OF BEES AND WASPS ON ARTIFICIAL FLOWERS' , 1981 .

[2] J. Kagel,et al. Animals' Choices over Uncertain Outcomes: Some Initial Experimental Results , 1985 .

[3] Daniel D. Frey,et al. Improving system reliability by failure-mode avoidance including four concept design strategies , 2005 .

[4] Colin Camerer,et al. Neural Systems Responding to Degrees of Uncertainty in Human Decision-Making , 2005, Science.

[5] S. Shafir,et al. Context-dependent violations of rational choice in honeybees (Apis mellifera) and gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis) , 2001, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.

[6] D. Kumaran,et al. Frames, Biases, and Rational Decision-Making in the Human Brain , 2006, Science.

[7] G. Gigerenzer. How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” , 1991 .

[8] A. Terry Bahill,et al. Risk analysis of a Pinewood derby : A case study , 2000 .

[9] Joseph Z. Ben-Asher,et al. Development Program Risk Assessment Based on Utility Theory , 2006 .