A review of forecasting models for new products

Purpose: The main objective of this article is to present an up-to-date review of new product forecasting techniques. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic review of forecasting journals was carried out using the ISI-Web of Knowledge database. Several articles were retrieved and examined, and forecasting techniques relevant to this study were selected and assessed. Findings: The strengths, weaknesses and applications of the main forecasting models are discussed to examine trends and set future challenges. Research limitations/implications: A theoretical reference framework for forecasting techniques classified into judgmental, consumer/market research, cause-effect and artificial intelligence is proposed. Future research can assess these models qualitatively. Practical implications: Companies are currently motivated to launch new products and thus attract new customers to expand their market share. In order to reduce uncertainty and risk, many companies go to extra lengths to forecast sales accurately using several techniques. Originality/value: This article outlines new lines of research on the improvement of new product performance which will aid managers in decision making and allow companies to sustain their competitive advantages in this challenging world.

[1]  N. Meade,et al.  Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation – A 25-year review , 2006 .

[2]  Edward I. Brody,et al.  News: A Decision-Oriented Model for New Product Analysis and Forecasting , 1982 .

[3]  R. Clemen.  Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography , 1989 .

[4]  V. Mahajan,et al.  New product models: Practice, shortcomings and desired improvements , 1992 .

[5]  Kenneth B. Kahn.  New Product Forecasting : An Applied Approach , 2014 .

[6]  Peter S. Fader,et al.  The value of simple models in new product forecasting and customer-base analysis , 2005 .

[7]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice , 2003 .

[8]  Kristian Kirsch.  Sales Forecasting Management A Demand Management Approach , 2016 .

[9]  Peter S. Fader,et al.  An Empirical Comparison of New Product Trial Forecasting Models , 1998 .

[10]  Arnaud De Bruyn,et al.  Principles of Marketing Engineering , 2007 .

[11]  W. Gartner,et al.  Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms , 1993 .

[12]  Glen L. Urban,et al.  Pre-Test-Market Models: Validation and Managerial Implications , 1983 .

[13]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research: , 1990 .

[14]  Steven P. Schnaars,et al.  A Survey of New Product Forecasting Practices in Industrial High Technology and Low Technology Businesses , 1999 .

[15]  Kenneth B. Kahn.  An exploratory investigation of new product forecasting practices , 2002 .

[16]  Fred Collopy,et al.  An Application of Rule-Based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge , 2000 .

[17]  Ching-Chin Chern,et al.  Designing a decision-support system for new product sales forecasting , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[18]  Allan D. Shocker,et al.  Pretest Market Models: A Critical Evaluation , 1986 .

[19]  Julie S Wherry.  Simulated Test Marketing: Its Evolution and Current State in the Industry , 2006 .

[20]  M. O'Connor,et al.  Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature , 1996 .

[21]  Dipak C. Jain,et al.  Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables , 1994 .

[22]  Robert J. Thomas,et al.  New product development : managing and forecasting for strategic success , 1993 .

[23]  Ashish Sood,et al.  Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting Market Penetration of New Products , 2009, Mark. Sci..

[24]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Issues and Opportunities in New Product Development: An Introduction to the Special Issue , 1997 .

[25]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[26]  G. Assmus.  New product forecasting , 1984 .

[27]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years , 2006 .

[28]  E. S. Gardner.  EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: THE STATE OF THE ART, PART II , 2006 .

[29]  Mark E. Parry,et al.  Forecasting New Product Adoption with Probabilistic Neural Networks , 2011 .

[30]  Peter S. Fader,et al.  Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods , 2001 .

[31]  Muammer Ozer,et al.  A survey of new product evaluation models , 1999 .

[32]  V. Mahajan,et al.  Editorial: Issues and Opportunities in New Product Development: An Introduction to the Special Issue , 1997 .

[33]  Michael Grüninger,et al.  Introduction , 2002, CACM.

[34]  Philip M. Parker,et al.  Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review , 1994 .

[35]  J. Armstrong,et al.  Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings , 1983 .

[36]  E. S. Gardner,et al.  Forecasting Trends in Time Series , 1985 .

[37]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  New product forecasting models. Directions for research and implementation , 1988 .

[38]  Janette B. Bradley,et al.  Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation: S. HAYKIN. New York: Macmillan College (IEEE Press Book) (1994). v + 696 pp. ISBN 0-02-352761-7 , 1995 .