High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical and economic potential of hydropower at a near-global scale. Using 15”×15” discharge and 3”×3” digital elevation maps, we built virtual hydropower installations at >3.8 million sites across the globe and calculated their potential using cost optimization methods. This way we identified over 60,000 suitable sites, which together represent a remaining global potential of 9.49 PWh yr−1 below US$0.50 kWh−1. The largest remaining potential is found in Asia Pacific (39%), South America (25%) and Africa (24%), of which a large part can be produced at low cost (<US$0.10 kWh−1). In an ecological scenario, this potential is reduced to 5.67 PWh yr−1.Hydropower represents the largest source of renewable energy currently available, yet its potential provision remains poorly characterized. Gernaat et al. present a high-resolution global assessment of technical and economic hydropower potential based on an analysis of over 3.8 million individual locations.

[1]  Jyotirmay Mathur,et al.  Introduction to Hydro Energy Systems , 2011 .

[2]  S. Levin,et al.  Trading-off fish biodiversity, food security, and hydropower in the Mekong River Basin , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  Jan H. Janse,et al.  GLOBIO-Aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems , 2015 .

[4]  Peter Morris,et al.  Cost Analyses and Benefit Studies for Earthquake-Resistant Construction in Memphis, Tennessee | NIST , 2013 .

[5]  A. Sleigh,et al.  Resettlement for China's Three Gorges Dam: socio-economic impact and institutional tensions , 2000 .

[6]  D. Vuuren,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0 : Model description and policy applications , 2014 .

[7]  Donna Heimiller,et al.  Improved Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios , 2012 .

[8]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions , 2011 .

[9]  W. Lucht,et al.  Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system , 2008 .

[10]  A. Kunte.  Estimating national wealth : methodology and results , 1998 .

[11]  F. Magilligan,et al.  Changes in hydrologic regime by dams , 2005 .

[12]  James A. Edmonds,et al.  A Comprehensive View of Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity , 2015 .

[13]  M. Hoogwijk.  On the global and regional potential of renewable energy sources , 2004 .

[14]  N. C. van de Giesen,et al.  Systematic high-resolution assessment of global hydropower potential , 2017, PloS one.

[15]  K. Verdin,et al.  New Global Hydrography Derived From Spaceborne Elevation Data , 2008 .

[16]  Bernhard Lehner,et al.  The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis , 2005 .

[17]  Taikan Oki,et al.  A GRID BASED ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL THEORETICAL HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL , 2008 .

[18]  Christopher S. Magirl,et al.  Navigability Potential of Washington Rivers and Streams Determined with Hydraulic Geometry and a Geographic Information System , 2009 .

[19]  F. Piontek,et al.  The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[20]  Carolien Kroeze,et al.  Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario drivers (1970–2050): Climate and hydrological alterations , 2010 .

[21]  Richard T. Hunt,et al.  Estimation of economic parameters of U.S. hydropower resources , 2003 .

[22]  Danièle Revel,et al.  IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation , 2011 .

[23]  Robert C. Pietzcker,et al.  Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector : the economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power , 2014 .

[24]  Robert Buttrick,et al.  The project framework , 2018, The Programme and Portfolio Workout.

[25]  Jérôme Hugues,et al.  Model‐Based Analysis , 2013 .

[26]  C. Müller,et al.  Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance , 2007 .

[27]  Kaye M. Shedlock,et al.  The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map , 1999 .

[28]  Bert de Vries,et al.  Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households , 2016 .

[29]  Detlef P. van Vuuren,et al.  Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation , 2015 .

[30]  S. Hagemann,et al.  Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models , 2012 .

[31]  Marc F. P. Bierkens,et al.  Beyond peak reservoir storage? A global estimate of declining water storage capacity in large reservoirs , 2013 .

[32]  M. Cernea,et al.  The economics of involuntary resettlement : questions and challenges , 1999 .

[33]  W. Lucht,et al.  Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model , 2004 .

[34]  F. Ludwig,et al.  Future water resources for food production in five South Asian river basins and potential for adaptation--a modeling study. , 2013, The Science of the total environment.

[35]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Effects of Precipitation Uncertainty on Discharge Calculations for Main River Basins , 2009 .

[36]  P. Döll,et al.  High‐resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river‐flow management , 2011 .

[37]  Danièle Revel,et al.  Renewable energy technologies: cost analysis series , 2012 .