NAFTA, Environmental Kuznets Curves, and Mexico's Progress

The effects of NAFTA on Mexico’s environment were of great concern pre-NAFTA and have continued to be a matter concern in the post-NAFTA era. As the many studies and evidence presented in this paper show, Mexico’s environment in the post-NAFTA period has not suffered as much as pessimists feared, nor has it improved as much as optimists hoped. This outcome is consistent with theory and evidence from Environmental Kuznets Curves in that Mexico’s macroeconomic performance has been inadequate to raise Mexico’s per capita income to levels needed to cross estimated turning points for many pollutants. Seen in this light, Mexico’s environmental quality will continue to be a mixture of modest improvements along with modest setbacks until the economy exhibits strong and sustained growth.