Causal Assessment of Biological Impairment in the Little Floyd River, Iowa, USA

ABSTRACT An assessment of biological impairment in the Little Floyd River (Iowa, USA) was based on evidence of three characteristics of causation: co-occurrence, preceding causation, and sufficiency. Evidence of the physical interaction of the probable causes and the biota, resulting alterations to the biota, as well as the time order of the cause and the effect were consistent within the assessment, but the evidence for these causal characteristics did not discriminate among probable causes or other causes. Deposited sediment, low dissolved oxygen, heat stress, and ammonia toxicity are the probable causes of impaired biological condition in the Little Floyd River compared with other rivers in the ecoregion. Less likely causes are suspended sediment, altered basal food resources, and flow alteration. Very unlikely causes are pH shifts, total dissolved solids, Cyprinus carpio (an invasive species), metal toxicity, and pesticides. Data were insufficient to assess salinity or other toxicants. The assessment was used to develop a recovery plan for the stream. This assessment demonstrates that, even when there are many candidate causes and uncertainties are substantial, the probable causes of biological impairments can be determined with enough certainty to inform decision-making to address environmental problems.