Risks associated with low doses and low dose rates of ionizing radiation: why linearity may be (almost) the best we can do.

Deterministic and stochastic effects associated with high-dose ionizing radiation (x-ray) exposure have been known for almost as long as ionizing radiation itself (1–3). At lower doses, radiation risks are primarily stochastic effects, in particular, somatic effects (cancer) rather than the deterministic effects characteristic of higher-dose exposure (4–6). In contrast to deterministic effects, for stochastic effects, scientific committees generally assume that at sufficiently low doses there is a positive linear component to the dose response—that is, that there is no threshold (4–6). This does not preclude there being higher-order (eg, quadratic) powers of dose in the dose response that may be of importance at higher doses. It is on this basis that models linear (or linear-quadratic) in dose are often used to extrapolate the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (who were typically exposed at a high dose rate to moderate doses [average, 0.1 Sv]) to estimate risks from low doses and low dose rates (4–6). Most population-based cancer risk estimates are based primarily on the Japanese atomic bomb survivor Life Span Study (LSS) cohort data (4–6). However, evidence of excess risks comes from a large number of other studies as well. In the parallel editorial (7), evidence is presented for possible real (or at least “practical”) thresholds or “hormetic” (beneficial) effects of low doses of ionizing radiation. As we summarize here, and in contrast to the arguments of Tubiana et al (7), we judge that there is little epidemiologic or biologic evidence for these for cancer. The arguments are of three forms: (a) assessment of the degree of curvature in the cancer dose response within the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and other exposed groups (in particular, departure from linear or linear-quadratic curvature), (b) consistency of risks between the Japanese and other moderate- and low-dose cohorts, and (c) assessment of biologic data on mechanisms. Most of the information on radiation-induced cancer risk comes from (a) the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, (b) medically exposed populations, (c) occupationally exposed groups, and (d) environmentally exposed groups (6). In the higher-dose radiation therapy studies, where doses received are very much higher than in the LSS, sometimes in the range at which cell sterilization occurs, excess cancer risks per unit dose tend to be less than in comparable subsets of the LSS (8,9). However, as we show, risks in moderate- and low-dose medically and occupationally exposed groups are generally consistent with those in the LSS.