Climate change with elevation and its potential impact on water resources in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Abstract Climate change in complex mountain regions has an impact on the change of water resources, especially in arid areas. Here, we use long-term meteorological and hydrological station observation data to analyze the time series of climate indices and runoff to study the variability of climate in the Kaidu River Basin. The analysis results are as follows: 1) the variability rate of low temperature indices are of greater magnitude than high temperature indices; 2) overall, for the river basin, frost days and ice days all exhibited decreasing trends, and growing season lengths increased considerably; 3) during the past 50 years, overall precipitation has increased in the river basin, but there are some differences in some seasons, and precipitation from June to August accounts for approximately 66% of the annual precipitation; and 4) temperature lapse rate and precipitation of the mountain region are major factors influencing the change of runoff for the Kaidu River Basin, temperature lapse rates are the main factor influencing the run off change in the spring and fall, and precipitation in the mountain region is the major factor influencing the runoff change in the summer. Generally, climate change in complex mountain regions will be expected to seriously affect water resources in arid regions.

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