A Locally Optimal Seasonal Unit-Root Test

This article proposes a locally best invariant test of the null hypothesis of seasonal stationarity against the alternative of seasonal unit roots at all or individual seasonal frequencies. An asymptotic distribution theory is derived and the finite-sample properties of the test are examined in a Monte Carlo simulation. The author's test is also compared with the Canova and Hansen test. The proposed test is superior to the Canova and Hansen test in terms of both size and power.

[1]  Shipra Banik,et al.  Testing for Seasonal Stability in Unemployment Series: International Evidence , 1999 .

[2]  G. Reinsel,et al.  Tests for Seasonal Moving Average Unit Root in ARIMA Models , 1997 .

[3]  Svend Hylleberg,et al.  Tests for seasonal unit roots general to specific or specific to general , 1995 .

[4]  B. Hansen,et al.  Are Seasonal Patterns Constant Over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability , 1995 .

[5]  Eric Ghysels,et al.  Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series: Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation , 1994 .

[6]  Brendan McCabe,et al.  A Consistent Test for a Unit Root , 1994 .

[7]  John W. Galbraith,et al.  A simple noniterative estimator for moving average models , 1994 .

[8]  Pentti Saikkonen,et al.  Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models , 1993 .

[9]  P. Phillips,et al.  Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? , 1992 .

[10]  Bruce E. Hansen,et al.  Testing for parameter instability in linear models , 1992 .

[11]  Victor Solo,et al.  Asymptotics for Linear Processes , 1992 .

[12]  B. M. Pötscher Noninvertibility and Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified ARMA Models , 1991, Econometric Theory.

[13]  D. Andrews Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation , 1991 .

[14]  Byung Sam Yoo,et al.  Seasonal integration and cointegration , 1990 .

[15]  Harald Uhlig,et al.  Reasonable extreme bounds analysis , 1990 .

[16]  John E. Sussams,et al.  Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter , 1990 .

[17]  J. Nyblom Testing for the Constancy of Parameters over Time , 1989 .

[18]  W. Newey,et al.  A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelationconsistent Covariance Matrix , 1986 .

[19]  Maxwell L. King,et al.  Locally Best Invariant Tests of the Error Covariance Matrix of the Linear Regression Model , 1985 .

[20]  David A. Dickey,et al.  Testing for Unit Roots in Seasonal Time Series , 1984 .

[21]  Paul Newbold,et al.  Finite sample properties of estimators for autoregressive moving average models , 1980 .

[22]  W. Fuller,et al.  Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root , 1979 .

[23]  P. Billingsley,et al.  Convergence of Probability Measures , 1970, The Mathematical Gazette.

[24]  A. Downes,et al.  Testing for unit roots: An empirical investigation , 1987 .

[25]  E. J. Hannan,et al.  Multiple time series , 1970 .