Multi-gas assessment of the Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol allows reductions in emissions of several ‘greenhouse’ gases to be credited against a CO2-equivalent emissions limit, calculated using ‘global warming potential’ indices for each gas. Using an integrated global-systems model, it is shown that a multi-gas control strategy could greatly reduce the costs of fulfilling the Kyoto Protocol compared with a CO2-only strategy. Extending the Kyoto Protocol to 2100 without more severe emissions reductions shows little difference between the two strategies in climate and ecosystem effects. Under a more stringent emissions policy, the use of global warming potentials as applied in the Kyoto Protocol leads to considerably more mitigation of climate change for multi-gas strategies than for the—supposedly equivalent—CO2-only control, thus emphasizing the limits of global warming potentials as a tool for political decisions.

[1]  G. Daily.  Nature's services: societal dependence on natural ecosystems. , 1998 .

[2]  J. Edmonds,et al.  A review of mitigation cost studies , 1996 .

[3]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content , 1998, Nature.

[4]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. , 1996 .

[5]  Andrei P. Sokolov,et al.  A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments , 1998 .

[6]  A. Denny Ellerman,et al.  CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens , 1997 .

[7]  J. Melillo.  Warm, Warm on the Range , 1999, Science.

[8]  F. Woodward,et al.  Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change , 1998, Nature.

[9]  Mark Rounsevell,et al.  Climate Change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 1996 .

[10]  H. Shugart,et al.  The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate , 1993, Nature.

[11]  A. Mcculloch.  Future consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) alternatives to CFCs: Comparison of estimates using top-down and bottom-up approaches , 1995 .

[12]  Andrei P. Sokolov,et al.  Transient climate change and net ecosystem production of the terrestrial biosphere , 1998, Global Biogeochemical Cycles.

[13]  J. Kaiser.  Possibly Vast Greenhouse Gas Sponge Ignites Controversy , 1998, Science.

[14]  I. Wing,et al.  Primary Aluminum Production: Climate Policy, Emissions and Costs , 1998 .

[15]  Stephen H. Schneider,et al.  Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies , 1999 .

[16]  Soedjatmoko,et al.  Managing the global commons , 1982, International Organization.

[17]  R. Kates.  Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation , 1997 .

[18]  Richard Schmalensee,et al.  Comparing Greenhouse Gases for Policy Purposes , 1993 .

[19]  J. Bruce,et al.  Climate change, 1995 : economic and social dimensions of climate change , 1997 .

[20]  W. Nordhaus.  Economics and Policy Issues in Climate Change , 1998 .

[21]  J. Kutzbach,et al.  Feedbacks between climate and boreal forests during the Holocene epoch , 1994, Nature.

[22]  Roger A. Sedjo.  Conference on global change: Economic issues in agriculture, forestry and natural resources: Washington, DC, 19–21 November 1990 , 1991 .

[23]  Richard S. Eckaus,et al.  Comparing the Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Global Warming , 1992 .

[24]  Sten Nilsson,et al.  The carbon-sequestration potential of a global afforestation program , 1995 .

[25]  Andrei P. Sokolov,et al.  A global interactive chemistry and climate model: Formulation and testing , 1998 .

[26]  S. Alam,et al.  Framework Convention on Climate Change , 1993 .

[27]  R. Durie,et al.  Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies , 2001 .

[28]  W. Sturges,et al.  Growth of fluoroform (CHF3, HFC‐23) in the background atmosphere , 1998 .

[29]  D. Victor,et al.  A Model for Estimating Future Emissions of Sulfur Hexafluoride and Perfluorocarbons , 1999 .

[30]  J. Fernandez-Cornejo.  Demand and Substitution of Agricultural Inputs in the Central Corn Belt States , 1993 .

[31]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations , 1996, Nature.

[32]  Alexander Wokaun,et al.  Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies , 1999 .

[33]  Gloor,et al.  A Large Terrestrial Carbon Sink in North America Implied by Atmospheric and Oceanic Carbon Dioxide Data and Models , 2022 .

[34]  John M. Reilly,et al.  Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue , 1993 .

[35]  Henry D. Jacoby,et al.  The Uses and Misuses of Technology Development as a Component of Climate Policy , 1998 .

[36]  M. Denbaly,et al.  Dynamic Fertilizer Nutrient Demands for Corn: A Cointegrated and Error-Correcting System , 1993 .

[37]  V. Weisskopf.  THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS , 2022 .

[38]  G. Woodwell,et al.  Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System , 1994 .

[39]  Stephen H. Schneider,et al.  Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are There Any "Fingerprints"? , 1994, Science.

[40]  Henry D. Jacoby,et al.  Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies , 1999 .

[41]  R. Prinn,et al.  Impact of emissions, chemistry and climate on atmospheric carbon monoxide: 100-yr predictions from a global chemistry–climate model , 1999 .

[42]  Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer,et al.  Atmospheric SF6: Trends, sources and prospects , 1998 .

[43]  K. Shine.  Radiative Forcing of Climate Change , 2000 .