The use of trend curves as an aid to market forecasting

Abstract Messrs. Harrison and S.F. Pearce present, in this contribution, a comprehensive account of trend- extrapolation techniques, as practised in Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd. The authors deal explicitly with six basic trend curves, available in the current ICI Central Management Services computer forecasting programme: which are: straightline; parabola; exponential; log parabola; modified exponential; and Gompertz curves. In their presentation the authors far surpass the customary exposition of mathematical detail by presenting practical examples, liberally supported with historical and technical detail, which cover: U.K. Alkali Consumption U.K. Sulphuric Acid Production U.S. Chloride Production U.S. Titanium Dioxide Consumption U.K. Man-Made Fibres Consumption U.S. Polythene Consumption U.K. Polyolefines Consumption