An integrated simulation modeling and operations research approach to spatial management decision making

Abstract Worldwide declines in fishery yields emphasize the need for innovations in fishery management methods and models that encompass the complex dynamics of fish stocks and a broader range of human impacts. To this end, we have developed a generalized analytical framework that builds upon and extends principles of traditional fishery management by utilizing methodologies from the fields of computer simulation modeling and operations research. To address the spatial dynamics of fishery resources and human uses, we built a new spatial population dynamics computer simulation model. Several operations research methods were also developed and integrated with the simulation model to provide a robust, quantitative framework for addressing a wide range of spatial management decisions in fisheries. We illustrate the power and applicability of our framework with three diverse case studies. The tirst case study explores how the use of varying numbers of marine reserves impacts coral reef fish productivity by integrating the population dynamics simulation model, a recursive clustering algorithm, and an integer program. The second case study integrates simulation model results into an analytical hierarchy process model to produce recommendations concerning contigurations of alternative spatial management plans for the Dry Tortugas, Florida, USA. Finally, in the third case study the spatial model is adapted to simulate spatial dredging activities to assess the uses of alternate “environmental windows” that meet operational goals and protect tishcry resources for use in dredging projects in United States coastal waterways.

[1]  J. Ryther.  Photosynthesis and fish production in the sea. , 1969, Science.

[2]  Thomas L. Saaty,et al.  Applications of the analytic hierarchy process to long range planning processes , 1982 .

[3]  Alan Harding,et al.  Applied Operations Research in Fishing , 1982 .

[4]  D. Simberloff,et al.  What do genetics and ecology tell us about the design of nature reserves , 1986 .

[5]  T. Saaty.  Axiomatic foundation of the analytic hierarchy process , 1986 .

[6]  J. Bohnsack,et al.  A stationary visual census technique for quantitatively assessing community structure of coral reef fishes , 1986 .

[7]  D. Pauly,et al.  Ecology of tropical oceans , 1987 .

[8]  R. Vachnadze,et al.  Some applications of the analytic hierarchy process , 1987 .

[9]  B. Rothschild.  Dynamics of marine fish populations , 1987 .

[10]  Jon M. Conrad,et al.  Kennedy, John O. S. Dynamic Programming Applications to Agriculture and Natural Resources. London: Elsevier Applied Science Publishers, 1986, xv + 341 pp., $76.00 , 1987 .

[11]  D. H. Noble.  Dynamic Programming: Applications to Agriculture and Natural Resources , 1988 .

[12]  Eric R. Zieyel.  Operations research : applications and algorithms , 1988 .

[13]  Wayne M. Getz,et al.  Population harvesting: demographic models of fish, forest, and animal resources. , 1990 .

[14]  Alec D. MacCall,et al.  Dynamic Geography of Marine Fish Populations , 1990 .

[15]  J. Ault,et al.  Correction to the Beverton and Holt Z-estimator for truncated catch length-frequency distributions , 1991 .

[16]  K. Mann,et al.  Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems , 1991 .

[17]  J. Ault,et al.  Analysis of two length-based mortality models applied to bounded catch length frequencies , 1992 .

[18]  James Evans,et al.  Optimization algorithms for networks and graphs , 1992 .

[19]  James A. Bohnsack,et al.  Marine reserves: they enhance fisheries, reduce conflicts, and protect resources , 1993 .

[20]  P. Fairweather,et al.  Single large or several small marine reserves? An experimental approach with seagrass fauna , 1993 .

[21]  J. Dugan,et al.  Applications of marine refugia to coastal fisheries management , 1993 .

[22]  C. Walters,et al.  Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history. , 1993, Science.

[23]  Daniel L. Schmoldt,et al.  Developing inventory and monitoring programs based on multiple objectives , 1994 .

[24]  G. D. Sharp.  It's about time : new beginnings and old good ideas in fisheries science , 1995 .

[25]  Garry R. Russ,et al.  Do marine reserves export adult fish biomass? Evidence from Apo Island, central Philippines , 1996 .

[26]  G. Russ,et al.  Marine Reserves: Rates and Patterns of Recovery and Decline of Large Predatory Fish , 1996 .

[27]  A. Bakun.  Patterns in the ocean: Ocean processes and marine population dynamics , 1996 .

[28]  J. Caddy.  Regime shifts and paradigm changes: is there still a place for equilibrium thinking? , 1996 .

[29]  J. Ault,et al.  Management Strategies to Conserve Marine Biodiversity , 1996 .

[30]  D. Olson,et al.  A Multicohort Stock Production Model , 1996 .

[31]  B. Rothschild,et al.  Population-dynamic instability as a cause of patch structure , 1996 .

[32]  Garry R. Russ,et al.  Marine reserves: patterns of adult movement of the coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae)) , 1998 .

[33]  Cynthia K. Dohner.  U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR , 1998 .

[34]  Jane Lubchenco,et al.  MARINE RESERVES ARE NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT FOR MARINE CONSERVATION , 1998 .

[35]  R. Engler,et al.  Entrainment by Hydraulic Dredges - A Review of Potential Impacts , 1998 .

[36]  Douglas G. Clarke,et al.  Environmental Windows Associated with Dredging Operations , 1998 .

[37]  J. Ault,et al.  A retrospective (1979-1996) multispecies assessment of coral reef fish stocks in the Florida keys , 1998 .

[38]  G. Nemhauser,et al.  An Optimization Based Heuristic for Political Districting , 1998 .

[39]  D. Clarke.  FISHFATE: population dynamics models to assess risks of hydraulic entrainment by dredges , 1998 .

[40]  Jerald S. Ault,et al.  A spatial dynamic multistock production model , 1999 .

[41]  D. DeAngelis,et al.  Effects of spatial grouping on the functional response of predators. , 1999, Theoretical population biology.

[42]  G. Meester.  A mathematical programming and simulation-based approach to determining critical factors in the design of effective marine reserve plans for coral reef fishes , 2000 .

[43]  D. Olson,et al.  Schooling and migration of large pelagic fishes relative to environmental cues , 2000 .