Assessing agricultural drought vulnerability in the Sanjiang Plain based on an improved projection pursuit model

AbstractDrought is one of the main natural disasters affecting regional agriculture, and regional agricultural drought vulnerability assessment is necessary to establish regional drought forecast, monitoring, and early warning mechanisms. The results can provide a theoretical basis for the identification of drought hazard and disaster prevention. In this study, the concept of the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points was proposed by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans Comput 23:881–890, 1974), and improvements to the projection pursuit model are proposed here by measuring discrete projection points according to the information entropy. This improved model was applied to assess the agricultural drought vulnerability of 18 counties located in the Sanjiang Plain for 4 years (2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013). Information entropy was shown to provide improved measurements in the data discreteness relative to standard deviations, and the cutoff radius was defined between 0 and ln 2, thus allowing the use of the exhaustion method to determine the cutoff radius. The overall agricultural drought vulnerability in the Sanjiang Plain area shows a downward trend over time. The main reason for this result is the reduced regional sensitivity and the increased drought resistance ability each year. Economic development speeds up the urbanization process, decreasing the proportion of agricultural population and the proportion of agricultural GDP each year and increasing the irrigation index, per capita GDP, rural per capita net income and other indicators each year. These developments decrease the sensitivity of the agricultural system, improve the adaptive capacity, and reduce the vulnerability. Spatially, the vulnerability of various regions shows some differences. The vulnerabilities of Hulin, Luobei, Youyi, and Fuyuan are the lowest and showed a downward trend over time. The sensitivities of these regions were also low; the population density, the proportion of agricultural population and other sensitive indicators were significantly smaller than those for other regions. Furthermore, the drought threat is small, the region has many state-owned farms, the economic situation is good, and the drought resistance ability is strong. The vulnerabilities of Baoqing, Muling, Raohe, and Tongjiang are moderate, with high sensitivities but strong adaptive capacity. The vulnerabilities of Yilan, Jidong, Mishan, Fujin, and Boli have changed greatly, mainly due to the rapid economic development in recent years, increasing the agricultural drought resistance. The vulnerabilities of Tangyuan, Suibin, Jixian, Huachuan, and Huanan are the highest, and with little change, these regions are highly sensitive and prone to drought. In addition, the regional economic development level is relatively low, and the agricultural drought resistance is not high.

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