Public Information and Coordination: Evidence from a Credit Registry Expansion

This paper provides evidence that lenders to a firm close to distress have incentives to coordinate: lower financing by one lender reduces firm creditworthiness and causes other lenders to reduce financing. To isolate the coordination channel from lenders' joint reaction to new information, we exploit a natural experiment that forced lenders to share negative private assessments about their borrowers. We show that lenders, while learning nothing new about the firm, reduce credit in anticipation of other lenders' reaction to the negative news about the firm. The results show that public information exacerbates lender coordination and increases the incidence of firm financial distress.

[1]  Marco Pagano,et al.  Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device , 1999 .

[2]  S. Morris,et al.  Global Games: Theory and Applications , 2001 .

[3]  Charles W. Calomiris,et al.  Can Emerging Market Bank Regulators Establish Credible Discipline? The Case of Argentina, 1992-1999 , 2000 .

[4]  Markus K. Brunnermeier Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08 , 2008 .

[5]  J. Krahnen,et al.  Multiple Lenders and Corporate Distress: Evidence on Debt Restructuring , 2002 .

[6]  S. Morris,et al.  Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks" American Economic Review , 1996 .

[7]  H. Tong,et al.  Disclosure Standards and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Analysts' Forecasts , 2007 .

[8]  S. Morris,et al.  OPTIMAL COMMUNICATION , 2005 .

[9]  R. Nagel,et al.  THE THEORY OF GLOBAL GAMES ON TEST: EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS OF COORDINATION GAMES WITH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INFORMATION , 2004 .

[10]  Allen N. Berger,et al.  Does Function Follow Organizational Form? Evidence from the Lending Practices of Large and Small Banks , 2002 .

[11]  Douglas W. Diamond,et al.  A Theory of Bank Capital , 1999 .

[12]  Frank Heinemann,et al.  Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[13]  Stephen G. Cecchetti Crisis and Responses: The Federal Reserve in the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis , 2009 .

[14]  Eric Maskin,et al.  Credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies , 1995 .

[15]  Martin Brown,et al.  Credit Reporting, Relationship Banking, and Loan Repayment , 2006 .

[16]  Daniel B. KLElN Promise Keeping in the Great Society: A Model of Credit Information Sharing , 1992 .

[17]  M. Petersen,et al.  The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships , 1994 .

[18]  H. Carlsson,et al.  Global Games and Equilibrium Selection , 1993 .

[19]  C. Edmond Information Manipulation, Coordination and Regime Change , 2007 .

[20]  M. Pagano,et al.  Information Sharing, Lending and Defaults: Cross-Country Evidence , 1999 .

[21]  Patrick Bolton,et al.  Optimal Debt Structure and the Number of Creditors , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[22]  Frank Heinemann,et al.  Measuring agents’ overreaction to public information in games with strategic complementarities , 2009 .

[23]  S. Morris,et al.  Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt , 2002 .

[24]  Wei Jiang,et al.  Payoff Complementarities and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Mutual Fund Outflows , 2007 .

[25]  M. Pagano,et al.  Information Sharing in Credit Markets , 1993 .

[26]  Hans Degryse,et al.  On the Non-Exclusivity of Loan Contracts: An Empirical Investigation , 2011 .

[27]  A. J. Padilla,et al.  Endogenous Communication among Lenders and Entrepreneurial Incentives , 1997 .

[28]  Margaret J. Miller Credit Reporting Systems and the International Economy , 2003 .

[29]  X. Vives Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation , 2011, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[30]  Luigi Guiso,et al.  Multiple versus Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence , 2000 .

[31]  Yongseok Shin,et al.  Does Transparency Pay? , 2008 .

[32]  M. Petersen,et al.  Does Distance Still Matter? The Information Revolution in Small Business Lending , 2000 .

[33]  Thomas Russell,et al.  Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing , 1976 .

[34]  M. Pagano,et al.  Multiple-Bank Lending, Creditor Rights and Information Sharing , 2009 .

[35]  C. J. Simon,et al.  The Effect of the 1933 Securities Act on Investor Information and the Performance of New Issues , 1986 .

[36]  J. Liberti,et al.  Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation , 2009 .

[37]  M. Petersen,et al.  The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data , 1994 .

[38]  J. Stein,et al.  Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized vs. Hierarchical Firms , 2000 .

[39]  S. Morris,et al.  Social Value of Public Information , 2002 .

[40]  C. Edmond Information Manipulation, Coordination and Regime Change , 2007 .

[41]  D. Scharfstein,et al.  Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers , 1991 .

[42]  Wendy A. Stock,et al.  Matriculation in U.S. Economics Ph.D. Programs: How Many Accepted Americans Do Not Enroll? , 2006 .

[43]  Information Sharing, Lending and Defaults: Cross-Country Evidence , 2002 .

[44]  A. Khwaja,et al.  Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks , 2005 .

[45]  H. Shin Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis , 2009 .

[46]  Chris Edmond,et al.  Information Revolutions and the Overthrow of Autocratic Regimes , 2007 .

[47]  Sergio Firpo Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects , 2004 .

[48]  S. Morris,et al.  Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders , 2001 .

[49]  Alessandro Pavan,et al.  Efficient Use of Information and Social Value of Information , 2007 .

[50]  A. Attar,et al.  On Moral Hazard and Nonexclusive Contracts , 2006 .

[51]  Alberto Bisin,et al.  Moral Hazard and Nonexclusive Contracts , 2004 .

[52]  David K. Musto What Happens When Information Leaves a Market? Evidence from Postbankruptcy Consumers , 2004 .

[53]  A. Pavan,et al.  Transparency of Information and Coordination in Economies with Investment Complementarities , 2004 .

[54]  J. Stiglitz,et al.  Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information , 1981 .

[55]  Michael Greenstone,et al.  Mandated Disclosure, Stock Returns, and the 1964 Securities Acts Amendments , 2005 .

[56]  James Vercammen,et al.  Credit Bureau Policy and Sustainable Reputation Effects in Credit Markets , 1995 .

[57]  Itay Goldstein,et al.  Demand Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs , 2002 .

[58]  Mauro Roca Transparency and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge , 2010, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[59]  Lars E. O. Svensson Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) is Actually Pro Transparency, Not Con , 2005 .

[60]  Brian J. Bushee,et al.  Economic Consequences of Sec Disclosure Regulation: Evidence from the OTC Bulletin Board , 2004 .

[61]  Emre Ozdenoren,et al.  Feedback Effects and Asset Prices , 2007 .

[62]  Craig McIntosh,et al.  The supply- and demand-side impacts of credit market information , 2010 .

[63]  T. Lapp The Greenspan era: lessons for the future , 2005 .

[64]  Heitor Almeida,et al.  The Risk-Adjusted Cost of Financial Distress , 2005 .

[65]  Uday Rajan,et al.  Competition in Loan Contracts , 1997 .

[66]  Stephen Morris,et al.  Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices , 2006 .

[67]  Raghuram G. Rajan,et al.  Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt , 1992 .

[68]  P. Bond,et al.  Borrower runs , 2005 .

[69]  Itay Goldstein,et al.  Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises , 2005 .

[70]  P. Garella,et al.  Multiple vs. Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence , 1999 .

[71]  M. Pagano,et al.  Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device , 1999 .