On the past history of an allele now known to have frequency p

Consider a diploid population of N individuals undergoing random mating and mutation as in the infinite-allele Wright model. Choose a particular gene in generation Q for large Q, and let f t (0 ≦ t ≦ Q) be the frequency of the allelic type of the predecessor of that particular gene (or the gene itself) in generation t. By considering a ‘diffusion approximation' {xt } of {ft }, we find the distribution of the age of an allelic type now known to have frequency p, and of its distribution of frequencies since the allele came into existence. A novelty here is that the process {xt } is not a diffusion, but a process with jumps; it has x = 0 as an inaccessible entrance boundary but periodically jumps to it from the interior of [0, 1]. The formulas obtained are the same as those derived by Maruyama and Kimura, who used a totally different approach.

[1]  A. Pakes On the age distribution of a Markov chain , 1978, Journal of Applied Probability.

[2]  G. A. Watterson,et al.  Reversibility and the age of an allele. II. Two-allele models, with selection and mutation. , 1977, Theoretical population biology.

[3]  B. Levikson The age distribution of Markov processes , 1977, Journal of Applied Probability.

[4]  G. A. Watterson,et al.  Is the most frequent allele the oldest? , 1977, Theoretical population biology.

[5]  Watterson Reversibility and the age of an allele. I. Moran's infinitely many neutral alleles model. , 1976, Theoretical population biology.

[6]  M. Frank Norman,et al.  Limit theorems for stationary distributions , 1975, Advances in Applied Probability.

[7]  Thomas G. Kurtz,et al.  Semigroups of Conditioned Shifts and Approximation of Markov Processes , 1975 .

[8]  M. Kimura,et al.  Moments for sum of an arbitrary function of gene frequency along a stochastic path of gene frequency change. , 1975, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[9]  P. Billingsley Conditional Distributions and Tightness , 1974 .

[10]  S. Sawyer A Fatou theorem for the general one-dimensional parabolic equation , 1973 .

[11]  J. McGregor,et al.  Addendum to a paper of W. Ewens. , 1972, Theoretical population biology.

[12]  T. Ohta,et al.  Theoretical aspects of population genetics. , 1972, Monographs in population biology.

[13]  M. Kimura,et al.  An introduction to population genetics theory , 1971 .

[14]  S. Sawyer A FORMULA FOR SEMIGROUPS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO BRANCHING DIFFUSION PROCESSES , 1970 .

[15]  H. McKean,et al.  Diffusion processes and their sample paths , 1996 .

[16]  H. Trotter Approximation of semi-groups of operators , 1958 .

[17]  J. Thoday Population Genetics , 1956, Nature.