The Clusnet Algorithm And Time Series Prediction

This paper describes a novel neural network architecture named ClusNet. This network is designed to study the trade-offs between the simplicity of instance-based methods and the accuracy of the more computational intensive learning methods. The features that make this network different from existing learning algorithms are outlined. A simple proof of convergence of the ClusNet algorithm is given. Experimental results showing the convergence of the algorithm on a specific problem is also presented. In this paper, ClusNet is applied to predict the temporal continuation of the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series. A comparison between the results obtained with ClusNet and other neural network algorithms is made. For example, ClusNet requires one-tenth the computing resources of the instance-based local linear method for this application while achieving comparable accuracy in this task. The sensitivity of ClusNet prediction accuracies on specific clustering algorithms is examined for an application. The simplicity and fast convergence of ClusNet makes it ideal as a rapid prototyping tool for applications where on-line learning is required.