Risk of dementia in MCI

Objective: To investigate the combined ability of hippocampal volumes, 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) metabolites, and cerebrovascular disease to predict the risk of progression to dementia in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We identified 151 consecutively recruited subjects with MCI from the Mayo Clinic Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center and Patient Registry who underwent MRI and 1H MRS studies at baseline and were followed up with approximately annual clinical examinations. A multivariable proportional hazards model that considered all imaging predictors simultaneously was used to determine whether hippocampal volumes, posterior cingulate gyrus 1H MRS metabolites, white matter hyperintensity load, and presence of cortical and subcortical infarctions are complementary in predicting the risk of progression from MCI to dementia. Results: Seventy-five subjects with MCI progressed to dementia by last follow-up. The model that best predicted progression to dementia included age, sex, hippocampal volumes, N-acetylaspartate (NAA)/creatine (Cr) on 1H MRS, and cortical infarctions. Based on age- and sex-adjusted Kaplan–Meier plots, we estimated that by 3 years, 26% of the MCI patients with normal hippocampal volumes, NAA/Cr ratios >1 SD, and no cortical infarctions will progress to dementia, compared with 78% of the MCI patients with hippocampal atrophy, low NAA/Cr (≤1 SD), and cortical infarction. Conclusions: Multiple magnetic resonance (MR) markers of underlying dementia pathologies improve the ability to identify patients with prodromal dementia over a single MR marker, supporting the concept that individuals with multiple brain pathologies have increased odds of dementia compared with individuals with a single pathology.