Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System over the Northeast United States

Abstract A short-range ensemble forecast system was constructed over the northeast United States down to 12-km grid spacing using 18 members from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The ensemble consisted of 12 physics members with varying planetary boundary layer schemes and convective parameterizations as well as seven different initial conditions (ICs) [five National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta-bred members at 2100 UTC and the 0000 UTC NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and Eta runs]. The full 18-member ensemble (ALL) was verified at the surface for the warm (May–September 2003) and cool (October 2003–March 2004) seasons. A randomly chosen subset of seven physics (PHS) members at each forecast hour was used to quantitatively compare with the seven IC members. During the warm season, the PHS ensemble predictions for surface temperature and wind speed had more skill than the IC ensemble and a control (shared...

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