Withdrawal from the European Union: A Typology of Effects

This paper examines Article 50 TEU and develops a typology of the possible effects of the withdrawal of a Member State from the EU. Because Article 50 TEU refers to a negotiated, post-exit, relationship between the withdrawing Member State and the Union, the typology focuses on the effects that may be experienced by the withdrawing Member State. Not all of the identified effects are of equal importance and not all of them must necessarily materialize. Their occurrence and magnitude will very much depend on the exit negotiations and the agreed post-exit relationship between that Member State and the EU. The paper also argues that withdrawal is unlikely to lead to the severing of all links with the EU or confer real policy independence to the withdrawing country. Moreover, non-application of EU law will require substantial re-legislation in the withdrawing country. The withdrawing country is unlikely to be insulated from developments in EU law.